To Trust or Not to Trust: A Cross-National Study of Trust and Leadership Access in Sports Labour Markets

This paper investigates the relationship between societal trust and the age at which individuals are appointed to managerial positions in association football. Using a comprehensive dataset of 35,037 football manager appointments across 46 countries from all continents between 1900 and 2024, this study examined whether cultural differences in trust levels explain the variation in career advancement patterns observed globally. Trust has been measured using the Global Preferences Survey (GPS), which provides experimentally validated trust measures across countries. The analysis revealed a negative relationship between societal trust and appointment age: a one-unit increase in trust is associated with leaders being appointed 1.10 years younger on average. This effect persists after controlling for economic development indicators, institutional quality measures, and other cultural preferences. While younger appointees have longer tenures, there is no relationship between societal trust levels and tenure duration. These findings suggest that trust serves as an important cultural foundation that enables societies to identify, develop, and promote young talent more effectively. The results have implications for understanding cross-national differences in sports labour market dynamics, human capital allocation, and organisational practices.