IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/l00101/103202.html

Identifying "Tipping Points" in Consumer Liabilities Using High-Frequency Data

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Garriga
  • Lowell R. Ricketts
  • Don E. Schlagenhauf

Abstract

The concept of a "tipping point" captures the idea of a threshold where debt is no longer sustainable and becomes a drag on household financial well-being. In the most severe cases, a "tipping point" represents the point at which a household experiences a debt default. This paper constructs different measures based on the dynamics of the monthly debt payment to after-tax income ratio. The preliminary examination using data from the Credit Risk Insight Servicing McDash (CRISM) dataset suggests that some of these measures have some predictive content when compared to alternative risk measures such as a FICO score.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Garriga & Lowell R. Ricketts & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2016. "Identifying "Tipping Points" in Consumer Liabilities Using High-Frequency Data," Community Development Publications and Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:l00101:103202
    Note: The St. Louis Fed Center for Household Financial Stability and the Private Debt Project hosted three "Tipping Points" Household Debt Research Symposia, 2016-2018. All three sessions were centered on the question of "tipping points" in regard to debt: How and when does household debt move from being wealth-building and productive for households and the economy to being wealth-depleting and destructive for both?; Conference Materials: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-i-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-household-financial-well-9372/session-list-685741; Conference Executive Summary: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-i-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-household-financial-well-9372/executive-summary-685740; Tipping Points Conference Series: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/series/tipping-points-conference-series-9375
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-i-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-household-financial-well-9372/identifying-tipping-points-consumer-liabilities-using-high-frequency-data-685743
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesse Bricker & Meta Brown & Simona Hannon & Karen M. Pence, 2015. "How Much Student Debt is Out There?," FEDS Notes 2015-08-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Meta Brown & John Grigsby & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Jaya Wen & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Financial Education and the Debt Behavior of the Young," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(9), pages 2490-2522.
    3. Meta Brown & Sarah Stein & Basit Zafar, 2015. "The Impact of Housing Markets on Consumer Debt: Credit Report Evidence from 1999 to 2012," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 175-213, March.
    4. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Gordon, Grey, 2012. "Dealing with consumer default: Bankruptcy vs garnishment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Don Schlagenhauf & Carlos Garriga, 2017. "Identifying "Default Thresholds" in Consumer Liabilities Using High Frequency Data," 2017 Meeting Papers 1305, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Bleemer, Zachary & Brown, Meta & Lee, Donghoon & Strair, Katherine & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "Echoes of rising tuition in students’ borrowing, educational attainment, and homeownership in post-recession America," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Kyle Herkenhoff, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," 2016 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Marco Di Maggio & Ankit Kalda & Vincent Yao, 2019. "Second Chance: Life without Student Debt," NBER Working Papers 25810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Daniele Chiavenato & Ricardo A. Madeira & Vitor Vaccaro, 2024. "Does financial education impact school attainment? Experimental evidence from Brazil," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp666, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    6. Marieke Bos & Chloé Le Coq & Peter van Santen, 2022. "Scarcity and consumers’ credit choices," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 105-139, February.
    7. N. Meltem Daysal & Michael F. Lovenheim & David N. Wasser, 2023. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Housing Wealth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10647, CESifo.
    8. Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2021. "Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Clark, Robert L. & Lin, Chuanhao & Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Sticha, Andrea, 2025. "Evaluating the effects of a low-cost, online financial education program," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    11. Scott Fulford & Joanna Stavins, 2022. "Does getting a mortgage affect consumer credit use?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 955-991, September.
    12. Marco Nieddu & Lorenzo Pandolfi, 2018. "Cutting Through the Fog: Financial Literacy and the Subjective Value of Financial Assets," CSEF Working Papers 497, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    13. Trevor J. Bakker & Stefanie DeLuca & Eric A. English & Jamie Fogel & Nathaniel Hendren & Daniel Herbst, 2025. "Credit Access in the United States," Working Papers 25-45, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2015. "Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit," Working Paper 15-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Andrej Cupak & Pirmin Fessler & Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Elisabeth Ulbrich, 2018. "Financial literacy in Austria: a survey of recent research results," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/18, pages 14-26.
    16. Elisabeth Sinnewe & Gavin Nicholson, 2023. "Healthy financial habits in young adults: An exploratory study of the relationship between subjective financial literacy, engagement with finances, and financial decision‐making," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 564-592, January.
    17. Exler, Florian, 2015. "Personal bankruptcy and wage garnishment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113219, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Laura - Filofteia PANOIU & Remus GRIGORESCU & Sorin Daniel MANOLE, 2024. "Identifying The Relationship Between Mathematical Pisa Score And Financial Knowledge," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 9(2), pages 126-138.
    19. Neumann, Uwe & Schaffner, Sandra & Eilers, Lea, 2019. "Bedeutung finanzieller Grundkompetenzen aus regionaler Perspektive. Gefördert durch die Dr. Josef und Brigitte Pauli-Stiftung," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 222358.
    20. Bahadir, Berrak & Gumus, Inci & Schaffer, Matthew, 2024. "Does relaxing household credit constraints hurt small business lending? Evidence from a policy change in Texas," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:l00101:103202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.