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Identifying "Tipping Points" in Consumer Liabilities Using High-Frequency Data

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  • Carlos Garriga
  • Lowell R. Ricketts
  • Don E. Schlagenhauf

Abstract

The concept of a "tipping point" captures the idea of a threshold where debt is no longer sustainable and becomes a drag on household financial well-being. In the most severe cases, a "tipping point" represents the point at which a household experiences a debt default. This paper constructs different measures based on the dynamics of the monthly debt payment to after-tax income ratio. The preliminary examination using data from the Credit Risk Insight Servicing McDash (CRISM) dataset suggests that some of these measures have some predictive content when compared to alternative risk measures such as a FICO score.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Garriga & Lowell R. Ricketts & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2016. "Identifying "Tipping Points" in Consumer Liabilities Using High-Frequency Data," Community Development Publications and Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:l00101:103202
    Note: The St. Louis Fed Center for Household Financial Stability and the Private Debt Project hosted three "Tipping Points" Household Debt Research Symposia, 2016-2018. All three sessions were centered on the question of "tipping points" in regard to debt: How and when does household debt move from being wealth-building and productive for households and the economy to being wealth-depleting and destructive for both?; Conference Materials: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-i-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-household-financial-well-9372/session-list-685741; Conference Executive Summary: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/tipping-points-i-mapping-understanding-impact-debt-household-financial-well-9372/executive-summary-685740; Tipping Points Conference Series: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/series/tipping-points-conference-series-9375
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