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Forecasts, indicators and monetary policy

  • Keith Sill

When setting monetary policy, should policymakers target variables such as commodity prices or interest rate spreads, which are sensitive to the market's expectations of inflation? Or are variables such as money growth, which are tied to the underlying causes of inflation and economic growth, better indicators of the economy's path? Keith Sill considers these questions as he reviews indicators past and present

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 3-14

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1999:i:may:p:3-14
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  1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Rational expectations and the reconstruction of macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  4. Herbert E. Taylor, 1985. "Time inconsistency: a potential problem for policymakers," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar/Apr, pages 3-12.
  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 10-18.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Strategies for Controlling Inflation," NBER Working Papers 6122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  9. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
  10. Manuel H. Johnson, 1988. "Current Perspectives on Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 253-260, Fall.
  11. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 1988. "Time consistency and policy," Staff Report 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
  13. George T. McCandless & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11.
  14. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A price target for U.S. monetary policy? Lessons from the experience with money growth targets," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
  16. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September.
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