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Measuring Fiscal Impetus: The Great Recession in Historical Context

Author

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  • Jacob Berman
  • Leslie McGranahan

Abstract

The authors use a measure of fiscal impetus to examine how fiscal policy has behaved during business cycles in the past, how it responded to the most recent recession, and how it is likely to evolve over the next several years. They find that policy was more expansionary than average during the 2007 recession and has been significantly more contractionary than average during the recovery. By the end of 2012, fiscal impetus was below its historical business-cycle average and it is forecast to remain depressed well into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Berman & Leslie McGranahan, 2014. "Measuring Fiscal Impetus: The Great Recession in Historical Context," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:00008
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fabian Bornhorst & Ms. Annalisa Fedelino & Jan Gottschalk & Miss Gabriela Dobrescu, 2011. "When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2011/002, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Fabian Bornhorst & Annalisa Fedelino & Jan Gottschalk & Gabriela Dobrescu, 2011. "When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Brian Lucking & Daniel J. Wilson, 2013. "Fiscal headwinds: Is the other shoe about to drop?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue june3.
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    Cited by:

    1. Willem L. Heeringa & Job Swank, 2019. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Credit Rationing, and Tax-Benefit Policies," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(2), pages 105-126, June.

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