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Financial cycles and fiscal multipliers

Author

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  • Sebastian Gechert
  • Rafael Mentges

Abstract

We show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets, as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with output growth via an identification bias and an omitted variable bias, thus overstating episodes of expansionary consolidations and downplaying contractionary consolidations. When controlling for asset and credit market movements in otherwise standard approaches to identification, we find multipliers to increase on average by 0.3–1 units. Fiscal consolidations are thus more likely to be contractionary and more harmful to growth than expected by some strands of the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Gechert & Rafael Mentges, 2018. "Financial cycles and fiscal multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2635-2651, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:24:p:2635-2651
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1403563
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    Cited by:

    1. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    2. Philipp Heimberger, 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and its growth effects in euro area countries: past, present and future outlook," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 589-617, December.
    3. Raghu Bir Bista & Kiran Prasad Sankhi, 2022. "Assessing Multiplier Effects of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth in Nepal: SVAR Model Analysis," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 50-58.
    4. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2023. "Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2669-2709, December.
    5. Sebastian Gechert, 2023. "Fiscal policy: post- or New Keynesian?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 338-355, November.
    6. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Thando Ngozo, 2024. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa: A Structural Var Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(2), pages 45-55.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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