Can mortgage applications help predict home sales?
In this article, John Duca finds that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of home mortgage applications can help forecast home sales. Alone, the index is a good, albeit imperfect, predictor of total home sales. But when included along with housing affordability and real, after-tax mortgage rate data, the index does not add extra information if one disregards differences in data release lags. ; The index is available roughly three to four weeks ahead of the two alternative indicators. Taking into account its greater timeliness, it provides some extra information on home sales beyond that in the two other indicators considered. Given this qualification, the MBA index can help predict overall home sales. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationships suggest that its usefulness may increase in the future. Nevertheless, the index should be used cautiously. It is still relatively new, and evidence suggests it may be misleading under some circumstances.
Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): Q IV ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John L. Goodman, 1987. "Housing and the Weather," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 638-663.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Eileen Mauskopf & Jeffrey Fuhrer & Peter Tinsley, 1990. "The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 985-1008.
- George A. Kahn, 1989. "The changing interest sensitivity of the U.S. economy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Nov, pages 13-34.
- Duca, John V., 1996. "Deposit Deregulation and the Sensitivity of Housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-226, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qiv:p:21-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Delia Rodriguez)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Delia Rodriguez to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.