IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/86651.html

Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Pawel Krolikowski
  • Kurt Graden Lunsford
  • Meifeng Yang

Abstract

We use advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act as an indicator of current and imminent labor market conditions. We have constructed a database of establishment-level notices starting in 1990 by scraping state government websites, contacting state officials, and retrieving historical data. We find evidence that these notices, aggregated to the national level, lead other prominent labor market indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, the change in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The lead relationship seems strongest at one month with economically meaningful magnitudes. Most recently, WARN data suggest a slight increase in labor market slack.

Suggested Citation

  • Pawel Krolikowski & Kurt Graden Lunsford & Meifeng Yang, 2019. "Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2019(21), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:86651
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201921
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201921
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-ec-201921?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. R. H. Shumway & D. S. Stoffer, 1982. "An Approach To Time Series Smoothing And Forecasting Using The Em Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 253-264, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Fallick & Dylan C. Jacobs & Pawel Krolikowski, 2024. "Advance Layoff Notice Provision and the WARN Act," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(18), pages 1-10, October.
    2. Pawel M. Krolikowski & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2024. "Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 462-480, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Beccarini, 2024. "Testing omitted variables in VARs," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 3093-3109, July.
    2. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    3. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    4. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    5. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2020. "Identification robust empirical evidence on the Euler equation in open economies," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    8. Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
    9. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    10. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Tobing, Lutzardo, 2021. "Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 225-237.
    11. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Bing Liang & Christopher Schwarz, 2008. "Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2785-2815, December.
    12. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Intraday periodicity, calendar and announcement effects in Euro exchange rate volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 82-101, January.
    13. Monica Paiella, 2007. "The Forgone Gains of Incomplete Portfolios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1623-1646, 2007 13.
    14. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    15. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    16. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Karoglou, Michail & Binner, Jane M., 2019. "Structural changes and the role of monetary aggregates in the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 100-107.
    18. Bua, Giovanna & Kapp, Daniel & Ramella, Federico & Rognone, Lavinia, 2022. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," Working Paper Series 2677, European Central Bank.
    19. Ju Ryum Chung & Eun Jung Cho & Ho-Young Lee & Myungsoo Son, 2017. "The impact of labour unions on external auditor selection and audit scope: evidence from the Korean market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(48), pages 4833-4850, October.
    20. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:86651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.