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The Term Structure of the Excess Bond Premium: Measures and Implications

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Abstract

In this article, we construct daily aggregate as well as short-, medium-, and long-term "excess bond premium" (EBP) measures using a widely available corporate bond database (known as "TRACE"). The novel EBP measures we construct provide an important gauge of strains in the financial sector at different horizons. We find that the short-term EBP measure increased more dramatically at the peaks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2007–09 global financial crisis, but the pattern was reversed around the interest rate liftoff at the end of 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Gilchrist & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "The Term Structure of the Excess Bond Premium: Measures and Implications," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(12), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:a00068:96623
    DOI: 10.29338/ph2021-12
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    1. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    2. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2021. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response [Funding value adjustments]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5309-5351.
    3. O'Hara, Maureen & Zhou, Xing (Alex), 2021. "Anatomy of a liquidity crisis: Corporate bonds in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 46-68.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rogers, John & Sun, Bo & Wu, Wenbin, 2025. "Drivers of the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Kevin Benson & Ing-Haw Cheng & John Hull & Charles Martineau & Yoshio Nozawa & Vasily Strela & Yuntao Wu & Jun Yuan, 2024. "Understanding the Excess Bond Premium," Papers 2412.04063, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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