Cracks in sovereign trust. Accounting and institutional crisis in a public monopoly: The Real Compagnia di Assicurazioni Marittime in the Kingdom of Naples (1751-1802)

Introduction: This paper explores the relationship between accounting and in-stitutional crisis by examining how the diffusion of revolutionary ideologies within an absolutist regime can affect the performance of State-owned enter-prises (SOEs). The analysis focuses on the case of the Real Compagnia di Assicurazioni Marittime (RCAM), a marine insurance public monopoly founded by Charles III of Bourbon in the Kingdom of Naples in 1751. Aims of the work: This study examines the accounting system of the RCAM to assess how the institutional disruption that unfolded in Naples at the end of the 18th century ? triggered by the spread of reformist ideologies inspired by the French Revolution ? contributed to the progressive weakening of the com-pany?s performance. Methodological approach: From a historical institutionalist perspective, the re- search employs an integrated methodological approach combining qualitative (archival) investigation with quantitative (econometric) analysis. The RCAM?s financial statements were complemented by the company?s non-financial doc-umentation, retrieved from the Naples State Archive, and analysed in two stages: (1) a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to identify latent regime dynamics in the company?s performance, and (2) an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) quasi-experimental model to estimate structural changes associated with the institu-tional disruption. Main findings: The findings demonstrate how the ?crack in trust? in the abso-lutist government of King Ferdinand IV of Bourbon affected the RCAM?s fate, within a broader context shaped by reformist currents inspired by Enlighten-ment ideas and by the spread of libertarian thought from revolutionary France into the Kingdom of Naples. Contribution to the literature: This study contributes to the literature by high- lighting accounting?s potential to reflect institutional instability within a public monopoly. It also supports the use of econometrics in accounting history re-search.