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Testing for Long Memory in the Feedback Mechanism in the Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Antonios Antoniou
  • Gregory Koutmos
  • Gioia Pescetto

Abstract

This paper investigates the possibility that futures markets attract noise traders who engage in positive feedback trading, an especially destabilizing form of noise trading. The hypothesis is tested using data from four major national index futures markets. The empirical evidence is consistent across all index futures markets under examination. Specifically, there is significant evidence of positive feedback trading. More importantly, the feedback trading pattern exhibits significant long memory in the sense that it depends on longer lags of past prices. Because volatility is asymmetric, the implication is that feedback trading is also asymmetric, being more prevalent during down markets so that mispricing is more likely during those periods that feedback traders are more active.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonios Antoniou & Gregory Koutmos & Gioia Pescetto, 2011. "Testing for Long Memory in the Feedback Mechanism in the Futures Markets," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 78-90, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:rbfpps:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:78-90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoniou, Antonios & Koutmos, Gregory & Pericli, Andreas, 2005. "Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-238, March.
    2. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    3. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    5. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    6. Frankie Chau & Phil Holmes & Krishna Paudyal, 2008. "The Impact of Universal Stock Futures on Feedback Trading and Volatility Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1-2), pages 227-249.
    7. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
    9. repec:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008:i:1-2:p:227-249 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gregory Koutmos & Reza Saidi, 2001. "Positive feedback trading in emerging capital markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 291-297.
    11. Anatoli Kuprianov, 1995. "Derivatives debacles: case studies of large losses in derivatives markets," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue fall, pages 1-39.
    12. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    13. Antonios Antoniou & Gregory Koutmos & Gioia Pescetto, 2011. "Positive feedback trading: evidence from futures markets," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 13-25.
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    1. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1289-1297 is not listed on IDEAS

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