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The effects of forecast specificity on the asymmetric short-window share market response to management earnings forecasts

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Listed author(s):
  • Howard Chan

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to test the effects of forecast specificity on the asymmetric short-window share market response to management earnings forecasts (MEF). Design/methodology/approach - The paper examines a large sample of hand-checked Australian data over the period 1994 to 2001. Using an analyst news benchmark, it estimates a series of regressions to investigate whether the short-term impact from bad news announcements is greater in magnitude than from good news announcements and whether this differs between routine and non-routine MEFs. Additionally, it examines whether (after controlling for news content of MEF) there is a differential market impact conditional on specificity: minimum versus maximum versus range versus point. Findings - The results indicate that an asymmetric response is evident for the overall sample and a sub-set of non-routine forecasts. Contrary to predictions, the results show that forecast specificity, minimum, maximum, range and point MEFs make no additional contribution to the differences in the market reaction to bad or good news. Originality/value - The study extends the research investigating the short-run market impact of MEFs. The main element of innovation derives from the interaction between specificity and news content, as well as distinguishing between routine versus non-routine cases. Notably, it found little support for the view that more specific forecasts elicit greater market responses. What the results do suggest is that managers appear to choose the form of the forecast to suit the news being delivered. In particular, bad news delivered in a minimum forecast seems to be ignored by the market.

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File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/10309610911005572?utm_campaign=RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc
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Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Accounting Research Journal.

Volume (Year): 22 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 237-261

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Handle: RePEc:eme:arjpps:v:22:y:2009:i:3:p:237-261
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Keywords: Australia; Financial forecasting; Investors;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, 02.
  2. Grossman, Sanford J, 1981. "The Informational Role of Warranties and Private Disclosure about Product Quality," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 461-483, December.
  3. Amy P. Hutton & Gregory S. Miller & Douglas J. Skinner, 2003. "The Role of Supplementary Statements with Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 867-890, December.
  4. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  5. Highhouse, Scott, 1994. "A verbal protocol analysis of choice under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 621-635, December.
  6. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
  7. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
  8. Brown, Lawrence D. & Higgins, Huong N., 2005. "Managers' forecast guidance of analysts: International evidence," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 280-299.
  9. Jennifer Conrad & Bradford Cornell & Wayne R. Landsman, 2002. "When Is Bad News Really Bad News?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2507-2532, December.
  10. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-529, June.
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Cited by:

  1. Madonna O’Sullivan & Majella Percy & Jenny Stewart, 2008. "Australian evidence on corporate governance attributes and their association with forward-looking information in the annual report," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 12(1), pages 5-35, March.

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