IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ejn/ejefjr/v8y2020i2p95-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Regime Shifts in Johannesburg Stock Exchange All-Share Index (JSE-ALSI): A Markov-Switching Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Katleho Daniel Makatjane

    (Basetsana Consultants, Republic of South Africa)

  • Edward Kagiso Molefe

    (University of the Free State, Republic of South Africa)

Abstract

It has been proven several times that linear models are unable to encapsulate nonlinear dynamics of macroeconomic and financial data such as inflation rates, exchange rates and stock prices to mention fewer. As a result, to overcome this problem, this current study adopted the nonlinear models due to the fact that they have required qualities to apprehend nonlinearity in a dataset. In order to predict a regime shifts, a five-day Johannesburg stock exchange allshare index (JSE-ALSI) spanning period from 02 January 2003 to 28 June 2019 was used as an experimental unit. This current study firstly employed Teräsvirta neural network test to detect the presence of nonlinearity and proceeded to estimate a two regime Markov-Switching autoregressive (MS-AR). The results of Teräsvirta neural network test revealed a highly significant nonlinearity with permanent seasonality as demonstrated by Kruskal-Wallis test. The predicted regime shifts by a latent dynamic allowed the autoregressive and variance parameters to promptly react to vital systemic shocks. As a result, this current study allowed volatility to oscillate between high and low volatility regimes that produced an expected duration of high volatility of two year and two months. This was a clear indication that there is a regime shifts in JSE-ALI which are modeled using Markov-Chain (MC) stochastic process. These findings may be used to inform robust policy making with the aim of safeguarding both the JSE and other global stock markets from the episodes of stock market crash. Moreover, other researchers can utilize the results of this study to calculate the risk associated with structural breaks and high volatility periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Katleho Daniel Makatjane & Edward Kagiso Molefe, 2020. "Predicting Regime Shifts in Johannesburg Stock Exchange All-Share Index (JSE-ALSI): A Markov-Switching Approach," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(2), pages 95-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:95-103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eurasianpublications.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/EJEF-8.2.4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Optimal lag-length choice in stable and unstable VAR models under situations of homoscedasticity and ARCH," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 601-615.
    2. Christopher CRUZ & Claire MAPA, 2013. "An Early Warning System For Inflation In The Philippines Using Markov-Switching And Logistic Regression Models," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 136-150.
    3. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    4. Lai, Sue Ling & Lu, Whei-Li, 2005. "Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 455-458.
    5. Lawrence Xaba & Ntebogang Moroke & Johnson Arkaah & Charlemagne Pooe, 2015. "A Comparative Study of Stock Price Forecasting using nonlinear models," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2704207, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xing Li & Xiangyu Ge & Cong Chen, 2022. "Several explorations on how to construct an early warning system for local government debt risk in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-27, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Working Papers Series 40, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Bleakley, Hoyt & Cowan, Kevin, 2010. "Maturity mismatch and financial crises: Evidence from emerging market corporations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 189-205, November.
    4. Yasmine Rashed & Hilde Meersman & Eddy Van de Voorde & Thierry Vanelslander, 2017. "Short-term forecast of container throughout: An ARIMA-intervention model for the port of Antwerp," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 749-764, December.
    5. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    6. Goh, Ai-Ting & Olivier, Jacques, 2004. "Financing decisions of firms and central bank policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1187-1207.
    7. Briceño Avalos, Hernán Ricardo, 2012. "Moral Hazard in the Euro-Zone?," MPRA Paper 61103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Do external commercial borrowings and financial development affect exports?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1796269-179, January.
    9. Cho-Min Lin & Yen-Hsien Lee & Chien-Liang Chiu, 2010. "Friends or enemies? Foreign investors in Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 977-982.
    10. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 592-607.
    11. Enisse Kharroubi, 2004. "Macroeconomic Volatility and endogenous debt maturity choice," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 22, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Konstantinos Matakos & Dimitrios Minos & Ari Perdana & Elizabeth Radin, 2022. "“Dragon boating” alone? Community ties and systemic income shocks," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 55-81, January.
    13. Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Banking Crises," Center for Development Economics 2008-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Opiela, Timothy P., 2004. "Was there an implicit full guarantee at financial institutions in Thailand? Evidence of risk pricing by depositors," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 519-541, September.
    15. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation: Theory and International Evidence," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 926, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    17. Shinji Takagi, 2010. "Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF’s Crisis Management Strategy in 2008," Working Papers id:3006, eSocialSciences.
    18. O. Fiona Yap, 2020. "A New Normal or Business-as-Usual? Lessons for COVID-19 from Financial Crises in East and Southeast Asia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1504-1534, December.
    19. Puri, Tribhuvan N. & Kuan, Chikuang & Maskooki, Kooros, 2002. "An analysis of currency crisis in South Korea," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 121-146.
    20. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:95-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Esra Barakli (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.