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Short-term forecast of container throughout: An ARIMA-intervention model for the port of Antwerp

Author

Listed:
  • Yasmine Rashed

    () (Faculty Applied Economics, Department of Transport and Regional Economics City Campus (CST) B.432)

  • Hilde Meersman

    () (Faculty Applied Economics, Department of Transport and Regional Economics City Campus (CST) B.432)

  • Eddy Van de Voorde

    () (Faculty Applied Economics, Department of Transport and Regional Economics City Campus (CST) B.432)

  • Thierry Vanelslander

    () (Faculty Applied Economics, Department of Transport and Regional Economics City Campus (CST) B.432)

Abstract

Abstract Short-term forecasts of container throughput are essential for planning both port operations and hinterland activities. However, the volatility and uncertainty in global economic activity and, consequently, in seaborne trade introduce complexity in modelling and forecasting container throughput at the port level. In this article, different univariate time series approaches were applied; the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, namely the ARIMA-intervention model, and the ARIMAX model with leading economic indicator. The advantage of the methodology applied is two-fold; (i) it provides insight about the data generating process post-2008 financial crisis and (ii) it identifies the relationship between economic activity and container throughput. Monthly data for the total container throughput at the port of Antwerp was used for the period January 1995–March 2015. On the basis of the empirical analysis and the assessment of the forecasting performance, the EU industrial confidence indicator turned out to lead the container throughput for 2 months. In addition, the incorporation of the structural break of October 2008 showed that, given the conditions, container throughput was persistent to return to the pre-crisis level.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasmine Rashed & Hilde Meersman & Eddy Van de Voorde & Thierry Vanelslander, 2017. "Short-term forecast of container throughout: An ARIMA-intervention model for the port of Antwerp," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 749-764, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_mel.2016.8
    DOI: 10.1057/mel.2016.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. RASHED, Yasmine & MEERSMAN, Hilde & VAN DE VOORDE, Eddy & VANELSLANDER, Thierry, 2013. "A univariate analysis: Short-term forecasts of container throughput in the port of Antwerp," Working Papers 2013022, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    2. Lai, Sue Ling & Lu, Whei-Li, 2005. "Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 455-458.
    3. Frank Van Nieuwenhove, 2015. "Economic Importance Of The Belgian Ports : Flemish maritime ports, Liège port complex and the port of Brussels – Report 2013," Working Paper Research 283, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Slack, Brian, 2010. "Battening down the hatches: How should the maritime industries weather the financial tsunami?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 4-9.
    5. Guy Melard, 1981. "On an alternative model for intervention analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13782, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Pallis, Athanasios A. & de Langen, Peter W., 2010. "Seaports and the structural implications of the economic crisis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 10-18.
    7. Fung, Michael K, 2002. "Forecasting Hong Kong's Container Throughput: An Error-Correction Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 69-80, January.
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