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The Green Revolution is not always bloodless: Agricultural modernization and rural conflict in Brazil

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  • Samuels, David
  • Thomson, Henry

Abstract

What are the sources of rural unrest? Recent research has focused on wage and employment shocks, which give workers stronger incentives to engage in contentious mobilization. Examining the case of Brazil, we show that adoption of new agricultural technology that substitutes for labor and reduces employment − specifically, mechanical tractors − can contribute to rural conflict. Using counts of tractors, we estimate the effects of agricultural mechanization on rural land invasions at the municipal level. We find that the number of tractors is robustly, positively correlated with conflict. Mechanization’s impact is distinct from the effects of other factors associated with rural unrest such as rainfall, landholding inequality, or nearby land reforms. Findings shed light on unanticipated political consequences of the Green Revolution and illuminate a novel mechanism potentially shaping rural conflict elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuels, David & Thomson, Henry, 2025. "The Green Revolution is not always bloodless: Agricultural modernization and rural conflict in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106951
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
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    5. Bruno Caprettini & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2020. "Rage against the Machines: Labor-Saving Technology and Unrest in Industrializing England," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 305-320, September.
    6. Dasgupta, Aditya, 2018. "Technological Change and Political Turnover: The Democratizing Effects of the Green Revolution in India," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 918-938, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Binbin & Yang, Ning & Liu, Wenming, 2025. "How does the modernization of agriculture promote manufacturing firms' green transition?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Biaowen Xu & Shasha Luo & Xue-Li Chen, 2025. "Driving Sustainable Agricultural Development in Hilly Areas: Interaction of Productive Services and Industrial Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Isabel Masson Palacios & Israel Vinueza-Fernandez & Samuel-Olegario Iñiguez-Jiminez & Mario J. Grijalva & Benjamin R. Bates, 2025. "Predictors of Low Back Pain Risk Among Farmers in Rural Communities of Loja, Ecuador," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 22(6), pages 1-15, May.

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