IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v191y2025ics0305750x25000361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Green Revolution is not always bloodless: Agricultural modernization and rural conflict in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Samuels, David
  • Thomson, Henry

Abstract

What are the sources of rural unrest? Recent research has focused on wage and employment shocks, which give workers stronger incentives to engage in contentious mobilization. Examining the case of Brazil, we show that adoption of new agricultural technology that substitutes for labor and reduces employment − specifically, mechanical tractors − can contribute to rural conflict. Using counts of tractors, we estimate the effects of agricultural mechanization on rural land invasions at the municipal level. We find that the number of tractors is robustly, positively correlated with conflict. Mechanization’s impact is distinct from the effects of other factors associated with rural unrest such as rainfall, landholding inequality, or nearby land reforms. Findings shed light on unanticipated political consequences of the Green Revolution and illuminate a novel mechanism potentially shaping rural conflict elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuels, David & Thomson, Henry, 2025. "The Green Revolution is not always bloodless: Agricultural modernization and rural conflict in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106951
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X25000361
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106951?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    3. F. Daniel Hidalgo & Suresh Naidu & Simeon Nichter & Neal Richardson, 2010. "Economic Determinants of Land Invasions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 505-523, August.
    4. Ernesto Dal Bó & Pedro Dal Bó, 2011. "Workers, Warriors, And Criminals: Social Conflict In General Equilibrium," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 646-677, August.
    5. Bruno Caprettini & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2020. "Rage against the Machines: Labor-Saving Technology and Unrest in Industrializing England," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 305-320, September.
    6. Dasgupta, Aditya, 2018. "Technological Change and Political Turnover: The Democratizing Effects of the Green Revolution in India," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 918-938, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Isabel Masson Palacios & Israel Vinueza-Fernandez & Samuel-Olegario Iñiguez-Jiminez & Mario J. Grijalva & Benjamin R. Bates, 2025. "Predictors of Low Back Pain Risk Among Farmers in Rural Communities of Loja, Ecuador," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 22(6), pages 1-15, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Massimiliano Calì & Alen Mulabdic, 2017. "Trade and civil conflict: Revisiting the cross-country evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 195-232, February.
    2. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    3. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    4. Michele Rosenberg & Stefano Falcone, 2022. "Agricultural Modernization and Land Conflict," Working Papers 1314, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Thiemo Fetzer & Samuel Marden, 2017. "Take What You Can: Property Rights, Contestability and Conflict," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 757-783, May.
    6. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H Felter, 2020. "Export Crops and Civil Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1484-1520.
    7. Francesco Amodio & Leonardo Baccini & Michele Di Maio, 2021. "Security, Trade, and Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-37.
    8. Laville,Camille & Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude, 2023. "Internal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10315, The World Bank.
    9. Jeffrey R. Bloem, 2019. "Good Intentions Gone Bad? The Dodd-Frank Act and Conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes Region," HiCN Working Papers 300, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Bruno Caprettini & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2020. "Rage against the Machines: Labor-Saving Technology and Unrest in Industrializing England," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 305-320, September.
    11. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    12. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2018. "Political economy of dynamic resource wars," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 765-782.
    13. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Juan Camilo Castillo & Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 269-286, May.
    15. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    16. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    17. Ahsan Kibria & Reza Oladi & Sherzod B. Akhundjanov, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and civil violence in Sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 948-981, April.
    18. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2024. "Giant oil discoveries and conflicts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(6), pages 15681-15710, June.
    19. Geloso, Vincent & Kufenko, Vadim, 2019. "Can markets foster rebellion? The case of the 1837–38 rebellions in Lower Canada," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 263-287.
    20. Bandiera, Antonella, 2021. "Deliberate displacement during conflict: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.