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The future of mobility in cities: Challenges for urban modelling

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  • Wegener, Michael

Abstract

Urban development in the last two centuries has been driven by an unprecedented growth in mobility made possible by abundant and cheap energy. Yet this trend will not continue forever. Despite technological innovation, finite fossil fuel reserves will in the long run lead to increasing costs of transport. Moreover, to fight global warming many governments have set ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, and to achieve them fossil fuels must become more expensive either through market developments or by political intervention. This paper gives an overview about the drivers, feedbacks and constraints of urban mobility and location in a possible future in which transport energy will no longer be abundant and cheap. It asks whether current urban models are able to adequately model the impacts of significantly higher transport costs and demonstrates by an example how it can be done.

Suggested Citation

  • Wegener, Michael, 2013. "The future of mobility in cities: Challenges for urban modelling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 275-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:275-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Wegener, 2011. "From Macro to Micro—How Much Micro is too Much?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 161-177.
    2. D C Simmonds, 1999. "The Design of the Delta Land-Use Modelling Package," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 26(5), pages 665-684, October.
    3. Qing Shen, 2000. "New Telecommunications and Residential Location Flexibility," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(8), pages 1445-1463, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick, 2015. "Changes in transport behavior during the financial crisis. An analysis of urban form, location and transport behavior in the greater Copenhagen area 2006–2011," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 10-19.
    2. João Valsecchi Ribeiro de Souza & Adriana Marotti de Mello & Roberto Marx, 2019. "When Is an Innovative Urban Mobility Business Model Sustainable? A Literature Review and Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Iago C. Cavalcante & Rodolfo I. Meneguette & Renato H. Torres & Leandro Y. Mano & Vinícius P. Gonçalves & Jó Ueyama & Gustavo Pessin & Georges D. Amvame Nze & Geraldo P. Rocha Filho, 2022. "Federated System for Transport Mode Detection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Irena Pawlyszyn & Halyna Ryzhkova, 2021. "Methodical Aspects of Planning Sustainable Urban Mobility," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 344-365.
    5. Uroš Kramar & Dejan Dragan & Darja Topolšek, 2019. "The Holistic Approach to Urban Mobility Planning with a Modified Focus Group, SWOT, and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-29, November.
    6. Saujot, Mathieu & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Arnaud, Elise & Prados, Emmanuel, 2016. "Making land use – Transport models operational tools for planning: From a top-down to an end-user approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 20-29.
    7. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    8. Andrea Alonso & Andrés Monzón & Yang Wang, 2017. "Modelling Land Use and Transport Policies to Measure Their Contribution to Urban Challenges: The Case of Madrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Yousif Elsamani & Yuya Kajikawa, 2024. "Envisioning the Future of Mobility: A Well-Being-Oriented Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Müggenburg, Hannah & Busch-Geertsema, Annika & Lanzendorf, Martin, 2015. "Mobility biographies: A review of achievements and challenges of the mobility biographies approach and a framework for further research," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-163.
    11. Kii, Masanobu & Nakanishi, Hitomi & Nakamura, Kazuki & Doi, Kenji, 2016. "Transportation and spatial development: An overview and a future direction," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 148-158.
    12. Hyoji Choi & Jonghyun Kim & Donghyeon Yu & Bogang Jun, 2024. "Population Concentration in High-Complexity Regions within City during the heat wave," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2423, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2024.
    13. Müggenburg, Hannah, 2021. "Beyond the limits of memory? The reliability of retrospective data in travel research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 302-318.
    14. Scheiner, Joachim, 2018. "Transport costs seen through the lens of residential self-selection and mobility biographies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-136.
    15. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:special5:p:344-365 is not listed on IDEAS

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