Data-driven analysis of Black Sea MoU detentions considering certificate and documentation deficiencies using Bayesian networks and association rule mining

Port State Control (PSC) inspections extend beyond the evaluation of a vessel's structural components, machinery, and equipment, encompassing a rigorous verification process of statutory certificates and official documentation. A comprehensive analysis of the empirical data demonstrates that deficiencies falling under the Certificates and Documentation (C&D) category consistently emerge as one of the most prominent and recurrent determinants influencing detention outcomes. The prevention of deficiencies arising from the C&D Code necessitates a systematic investigation into the critical determinants that precipitate vessel detentions due to C&D-related non-conformities. Accordingly, this study undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the interrelationships between multiple influential variables and deficiency classifications, with particular emphasis on their contributory role in detention occurrences attributed to C&D deficiencies within the PSC regime. In this context, the present study proposes a hybrid methodological framework that combines a data-driven Bayesian inference model—specifically utilizing Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) networks—with an Association Rule Mining (ARM) approach. This framework is applied to an empirical dataset comprising 6079 PSC inspection reports conducted under the Black Sea MoU (BSMOU) between 2003 and 2024. The outcomes of this study indicate that a deficiency count exceeding 20, classification under the 'Others' ship type category, detentions occurring in Romania and Bulgaria, as well as deficiencies related to cargo operations including equipment and the International Safety Management (ISM) Code, are among the most salient factors associated with vessel detentions caused by C&D Code. The results of this study furnish critical insights to port authorities and ship operating entities, thereby supporting the formulation of evidence-based policies and the strategic prioritization of interventions to effectively mitigate the risk of vessel detention.