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The induced demand implications of alternative adoption modalities of automated vehicles

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Listed:
  • Batur, Irfan
  • Mondal, Aupal
  • Alhassan, Victor O.
  • Asmussen, Katherine E.
  • Bhat, Chandra R.
  • Pendyala, Ram M.

Abstract

There is considerable interest in understanding the potential induced demand implications of the advent of automated vehicles. In an automated vehicle future, drivers and passengers are relieved of the driving task, thus rendering car travel more convenient and less onerous. As such, there is the possibility that people will undertake more trips in an automated vehicle future, raising the specter of induced demand. Induced demand may also arise from mode shifts, changes in trip lengths, and residential relocations. This study posits that induced demand resulting from the adoption of automated vehicles is inter-related to the adoption modality. Automated vehicles may be purchased and owned personally or used as a mobility-on-demand service (or both). This study aims to shed light on the relationship between automated vehicle adoption modality and likelihood of making additional trips in an automated vehicle future. A joint model of these two outcome variables, wherein automated vehicle adoption modality affects likelihood of making additional trips, is estimated and presented in this paper. The results show that, regardless of the adoption modality, the likelihood of making additional trips increases, with private ownership contributing more to induced demand than a service-based adoption modality. This finding suggests that efforts should be aimed at curbing private ownership of automated vehicles to limit unintended consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Batur, Irfan & Mondal, Aupal & Alhassan, Victor O. & Asmussen, Katherine E. & Bhat, Chandra R. & Pendyala, Ram M., 2026. "The induced demand implications of alternative adoption modalities of automated vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:175:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x25004226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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