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A comprehensive analysis of the societal impacts of conditional automated driving in Europe

Author

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  • Bjorvatn, Afsaneh
  • Heum, Per
  • Pedersen, Karl Rolf

Abstract

This paper examines the societal impacts of conditional automated driving for passenger cars in Europe, using unique real-world data from extensive public road testing as the basis for traffic simulations. System performance was assessed in terms of safety, efficiency, and environmental impacts, with all effects scaled up to the European level. Additionally, a survey was conducted in several European countries to assess travel time cost impacts. The findings indicate that the most significant benefits of conditional automation stem from enhanced safety, particularly reductions in accidents and injuries, and from travel time cost savings. Other positive effects, including reduced congestion, pollution, and fuel consumption, are evident but comparatively smaller. Overall, conditional automated driving has the potential to generate social benefits that significantly outweigh its costs. These benefits increase with higher market penetration, ranging from over €5.7 to 8.9 billion per year at a 5 % penetration rate and rising to between €35.2 to €47.4 billion annually at a 30 % penetration rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjorvatn, Afsaneh & Heum, Per & Pedersen, Karl Rolf, 2025. "A comprehensive analysis of the societal impacts of conditional automated driving in Europe," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0967070x25003695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103826
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    References listed on IDEAS

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