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The role of status quo bias in shaping support for controversial transport policies: The counterfactual test

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  • Moleman, Milan L.
  • van Wee, Bert
  • Steketee, Lennard B.
  • van den Hurk, Noor
  • Kroesen, Maarten

Abstract

A biased preference for the status quo could explain the increased support for policies following their implementation. However, the influence of status quo bias on support for transport policies has been analysed to a limited extent only. The counterfactual test serves as a potential method to empirically explore this influence by framing policies as the existing or alternative situation. This paper employs the counterfactual test to ascertain whether individuals disproportionately favour the status quo. To this end, we have designed separate experiments focusing on three transport policies: road pricing, speed limits, and train ticket fare differentiation. The results indicate that status quo bias does indeed influence support for transport policies. Participants prefer each policy option when framed as the status quo. In contrast, support for the same policy option declines when presented as the alternative situation. These findings underscore the irrational tendency to adhere to the status quo, which may stem from psychological commitments or cognitive misperceptions. Therefore, politicians, policymakers, and practitioners should anticipate a bias towards the status quo when introducing controversial transport policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Moleman, Milan L. & van Wee, Bert & Steketee, Lennard B. & van den Hurk, Noor & Kroesen, Maarten, 2025. "The role of status quo bias in shaping support for controversial transport policies: The counterfactual test," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 453-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:171:y:2025:i:c:p:453-461
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.027
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