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Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

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  • Bansal, Prateek
  • Kockelman, Kara M.

Abstract

Automobile manufacturers, transportation researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation-based fleet evolution framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015–2045) adoption levels of CAV technologies under eight different scenarios based on 5% and 10% annual drops in technology prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and changes in government regulations (e.g., mandatory adoption of connectivity on new vehicles). This simulation was calibrated with data obtained from a survey of 2167 Americans, regarding their preferences for CAV technologies (e.g., WTP) and their household’s annual vehicle transaction decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bansal, Prateek & Kockelman, Kara M., 2017. "Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:49-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.10.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
    2. Fagnant, Daniel J. & Kockelman, Kara, 2015. "Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 167-181.
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