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Modeling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects

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  • Feng, Zhuo
  • Zhang, Shui-Bo
  • Gao, Ying

Abstract

Government guarantees are frequently used to attract private investors’ participation into Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects. In this paper, we investigate the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and road capacity by taking perspective of the private investor. The main results are: (1) Minimum traffic guarantee increases toll charge while decreasing road quality. Under a low guarantee level, minimum traffic guarantee has no impact on road capacity. However, it improves road capacity when a high guarantee level is performed. (2) Under minimum revenue guarantee, if the guarantee level is sufficiently high, the optimal toll charge will be sufficiently large, but road quality and road capacity will approach zero. (3) Price compensation guarantee decreases toll charge and increases both road quality and road capacity. This paper further investigates the impact of government guarantees when the contract is auctioned. We find that auction reduces the impact of government guarantees on toll charge while failing to affect the impact of government guarantees on road quality and capacity. Some policy implications are also derived from our model results.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying, 2015. "Modeling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:54-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.05.006
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    4. Wang, Wei (Walker) & Jin, Xi & Tan, Zhijia & Sun, Huijun & Wu, Jianjun, 2022. "Modeling the effects of government subsidy and regulation on BOT transport project contract design within contractible service quality," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
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    7. Shi, Shasha & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2020. "Optimal choice of capacity, toll, and subsidy for build-operate-transfer roads with a paid minimum traffic guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-254.
    8. Zhang, Yiwen & Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shuibo, 2018. "The effects of concession period structures on BOT road contracts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 106-125.
    9. Hoang-Tung, Nguyen & Viet Hung, Do & Kato, Hironori & Binh, Phan Le, 2021. "Modeling ceiling price for build-operate-transfer road projects in developing countries," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    10. Lih-Ren Liu & Yuh-Ming Lee, 2016. "Remedial Measures for Erroneous Environmental Policies: Assessing Infrastructure Projects of Waste-to-Energy Incineration in Taiwan with a Case Study of the Taitung Incinerator," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
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    13. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying & Zhang, Shuai-Jun, 2016. "Subsidizing and pricing private toll roads with noncontractible service quality: A relational contract approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 466-491.
    14. Wang, Yinglin & Gao, Huaizhu Oliver & Liu, Jicai, 2019. "Incentive game of investor speculation in PPP highway projects based on the government minimum revenue guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 20-34.
    15. Li, Shuai & Cai, Hubo, 2017. "Government incentive impacts on private investment behaviors under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 115-129.
    16. Xueguo Xu & Tingting Xu & Meizeng Gui, 2020. "Incentive Mechanism for Municipal Solid Waste Disposal PPP Projects in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-16, September.
    17. Shi, Shasha & Yin, Yafeng & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2021. "Optimal build-operate-transfer road contracts under information asymmetry and uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 65-86.
    18. Tai-Yuen HON, 2015. "Foreign-Invested Enterprises in China," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 305-320, December.
    19. Wang, Fan & Xiong, Minghua & Niu, Baozhuang & Zhuo, Xiaopo, 2018. "Impact of government subsidy on BOT contract design: Price, demand, and concession period," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 137-159.
    20. Feng, Zhuo & Song, Jinbo & Yang, Xiaoxing & Guo, Ran, 2023. "Contractual flexibility, firm effort, and subsidy design: A comparison of PPP project contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 484-496.
    21. Lu, Zhaoyang & Meng, Qiang, 2023. "Effects of asymmetric investment cost information on revenue-compensated build-operate-transfer highway contracts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 71-92.
    22. Meng, Qiang & Lu, Zhaoyang, 2017. "Quantitative analyses of highway franchising under build-operate-transfer scheme: Critical review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 105-123.
    23. Wang, Dan-Yi & Wang, Xueqing & Ding, Ru-Xi, 2022. "Welfare maximization with the least subsidy: Pricing model for surface water loop heat pump PPP projects considering occupancy rate growth and coefficient of performance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 1131-1141.

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