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A model to assess public transport demand stability

  • Bass, Pablo
  • Donoso, Pedro
  • Munizaga, Marcela
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    Transport authorities, especially those in developing countries where rising income stimulate increased car ownership rates, are often concerned with maintaining or increasing levels of public transport use. Therefore, the ability to identify clients at risk of abandoning the system can be valuable for remedial measures, allowing for more focused quality improvements. We present and apply a model that determines the probability of migrating from public to private transport at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. In application, the model predicted migration with 60% accuracy in the first preference recovery measure. The proposed model can improve the understanding of the behavior of public transport users, the analysis of demand stability and the factors influencing migration. This, in turn, can help to focus policy and management measures and increase the efficiency of public investment.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856411000966
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 8 (October)
    Pages: 755-764

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:8:p:755-764
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    1. María Yáñez & Patricio Mansilla & Juan de Ortúzar, 2010. "The Santiago Panel: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 125-149, January.
    2. Hensher, David A. & Stopher, Peter & Bullock, Philip, 2003. "Service quality--developing a service quality index in the provision of commercial bus contracts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 499-517, July.
    3. Gaundry, Marc J. I. & Dagenais, Marcel G., 1979. "The dogit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 105-111, June.
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