Exploring the combined effects of major fuel technologies, eco-routing, and eco-driving for sustainable traffic decarbonization in downtown Toronto

As global efforts to combat climate change intensify, transitioning to sustainable transportation is crucial. This study investigates decarbonization strategies for urban traffic in downtown Toronto through microsimulation, focusing on eco-routing and eco-driving strategies, as well as the adoption of different fuel technologies: Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), and conventional vehicles. A total of 140 scenarios are analyzed, incorporating varying levels of Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) penetration, anticipatory routing strategies, and driving behavior. Using transformer-based prediction models, the study evaluates Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions, average speed, and travel time. The findings demonstrate that 100% BEV adoption can reduce GHG emissions by 75%, but infrastructure and cost challenges persist. HEVs achieve moderate GHG reductions of 35%–40%, while e-fuels offer limited reductions of 5%. The study also highlights the role of eco-routing and eco-driving strategies in reducing emissions and improving travel time. However, it acknowledges potential unintended consequences, including modal shifts from active and public transportation to EVs, which could increase Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) and congestion, potentially offsetting some benefits of vehicle electrification. Integrating CAVs with anticipatory routing shows additional gains in reducing emissions and optimizing traffic flows. By providing a comprehensive evaluation of fuel technologies, traffic management strategies, and driving behaviors, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers to balance the benefits of electrification with its broader transportation impacts, supporting the development of sustainable urban mobility systems.