IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v183y2022ics0040162522004553.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Two-stage technology opportunity discovery for firm-level decision making: GCN-based link-prediction approach

Author

Listed:
  • Park, Mingyu
  • Geum, Youngjung

Abstract

In this study, we propose a graph convolution network (GCN)-based patent-link prediction to predict technology convergence. We address the limitations of previous works, which neglect both the global information of a convergence network and the node features. We employ three features: GCN node features to represent global information, node features to characterize what kinds of information they have and how they are similar, and edge similarity to represent how frequently the two nodes are connected. Considering three categories of information, we conduct link prediction using machine learning (ML) to identify potential opportunities. To identify areas of technology convergence, we also support firm-level decision making using portfolio analysis. This study consists of two main stages: opportunity discovery which employs both GCN-based link prediction and ML, and opportunity validation which evaluates whether the identified technology opportunities are suitable from the firm's perspective. A case study is conducted for the mobile payment industry. A total of 17,540 patent documents with 36,871 positive links are used for GCN link prediction and ML. As a result of firm-level opportunity validation, a total of 395 cooperative patent classifications (CPC) were predicted to be possibly linked with 32 current CPCs of the target firm. The contributions come from two main aspects. From a theoretical perspective, this study employs GCN and node features to reflect the global graph structure for technology convergence. From a practical perspective, this study suggests how to validate the identified opportunities for firm-level applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Mingyu & Geum, Youngjung, 2022. "Two-stage technology opportunity discovery for firm-level decision making: GCN-based link-prediction approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:183:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522004553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522004553
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121934?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karvonen, Matti & Kässi, Tuomo, 2013. "Patent citations as a tool for analysing the early stages of convergence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(6), pages 1094-1107.
    2. Jungpyo Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Recommendation system for technology convergence opportunities based on self-supervised representation learning," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Ren, Haiying & Zhao, Yuhui, 2021. "Technology opportunity discovery based on constructing, evaluating, and searching knowledge networks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Ozgun, Burcu & Broekel, Tom, 2021. "The geography of innovation and technology news - An empirical study of the German news media," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Kim, Juram & Kim, Seungho & Lee, Changyong, 2019. "Anticipating technological convergence: Link prediction using Wikipedia hyperlinks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 25-34.
    6. Caviggioli, Federico, 2016. "Technology fusion: Identification and analysis of the drivers of technology convergence using patent data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 55, pages 22-32.
    7. Jeeeun Kim & Sungjoo Lee, 2017. "Forecasting and identifying multi-technology convergence based on patent data: the case of IT and BT industries in 2020," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(1), pages 47-65, April.
    8. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1963. "Technological Change in the Machine Tool Industry, 1840–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 414-443, December.
    9. Yoon, Byungun & Magee, Christopher L., 2018. "Exploring technology opportunities by visualizing patent information based on generative topographic mapping and link prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 105-117.
    10. Zhu, Chen & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2022. "Identifying the technology convergence using patent text information: A graph convolutional networks (GCN)-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Lü, Linyuan & Zhou, Tao, 2011. "Link prediction in complex networks: A survey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(6), pages 1150-1170.
    12. Kose, Toshihiro & Sakata, Ichiro, 2019. "Identifying technology convergence in the field of robotics research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 751-766.
    13. Yoon, Janghyeok & Park, Hyunseok & Seo, Wonchul & Lee, Jae-Min & Coh, Byoung-youl & Kim, Jonghwa, 2015. "Technology opportunity discovery (TOD) from existing technologies and products: A function-based TOD framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-167.
    14. Seunghyun Oh & Jaewoong Choi & Namuk Ko & Janghyeok Yoon, 2020. "Predicting product development directions for new product planning using patent classification-based link prediction," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 1833-1876, December.
    15. Li, Shuying & Zhang, Xian & Xu, Haiyun & Fang, Shu & Garces, Edwin & Daim, Tugrul, 2020. "Measuring strategic technological strength :Patent Portfolio Model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Gambardella, Alfonso & Torrisi, Salvatore, 1998. "Does technological convergence imply convergence in markets? Evidence from the electronics industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 445-463, September.
    17. Lee, Changyong & Kang, Bokyoung & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Novelty-focused patent mapping for technology opportunity analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 355-365.
    18. Joon Hyung Cho & Jungpyo Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Predicting future technological convergence patterns based on machine learning using link prediction," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5413-5429, July.
    19. Eilers, Kathi & Frischkorn, Jonas & Eppinger, Elisabeth & Walter, Lothar & Moehrle, Martin G., 2019. "Patent-based semantic measurement of one-way and two-way technology convergence: The case of ultraviolet light emitting diodes (UV-LEDs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 341-353.
    20. Euiseok Kim & Yongrae Cho & Wonjoon Kim, 2014. "Dynamic patterns of technological convergence in printed electronics technologies: patent citation network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 98(2), pages 975-998, February.
    21. Kim, Junhan & Geum, Youngjung, 2021. "How to develop data-driven technology roadmaps:The integration of topic modeling and link prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    22. Wei Chen & Hui Qu & Kuo Chi, 2021. "Partner Selection in China Interorganizational Patent Cooperation Network Based on Link Prediction Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    23. Kim, Tae San & Sohn, So Young, 2020. "Machine-learning-based deep semantic analysis approach for forecasting new technology convergence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    24. Ying Tang & Xuming Lou & Zifeng Chen & Chengjin Zhang, 2020. "A Study on Dynamic Patterns of Technology Convergence with IPC Co-Occurrence-Based Analysis: The Case of 3D Printing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, March.
    25. Seongkyoon Jeong & Jong-Chan Kim & Jae Young Choi, 2015. "Technology convergence: What developmental stage are we in?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 104(3), pages 841-871, September.
    26. Lee, Won Sang & Han, Eun Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Predicting the pattern of technology convergence using big-data technology on large-scale triadic patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 317-329.
    27. Aaldering, Lukas Jan & Leker, Jens & Song, Chie Hoon, 2019. "Uncovering the dynamics of market convergence through M&A," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 95-114.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Zhenfeng & Feng, Jian & Uden, Lorna, 2023. "Technology opportunity analysis using hierarchical semantic networks and dual link prediction," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Motohashi, Kazuyuki & Zhu, Chen, 2023. "Identifying technology opportunity using dual-attention model and technology-market concordance matrix," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki, 2023. "Identifying Technology Opportunity Using a Dual-attention Model and a Technology-market Concordance Matrix," Discussion papers 23024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sick, Nathalie & Bröring, Stefanie, 2022. "Exploring the research landscape of convergence from a TIM perspective: A review and research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Jungpyo Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Recommendation system for technology convergence opportunities based on self-supervised representation learning," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Ying Tang & Xuming Lou & Zifeng Chen & Chengjin Zhang, 2020. "A Study on Dynamic Patterns of Technology Convergence with IPC Co-Occurrence-Based Analysis: The Case of 3D Printing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, March.
    4. Sajad Ashouri & Anne-Laure Mention & Kosmas X. Smyrnios, 2021. "Anticipation and analysis of industry convergence using patent-level indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5727-5758, July.
    5. Chen Zhu & Kazuyuki Motohashi, 2023. "Government R&D spending as a driving force of technology convergence: a case study of the Advanced Sequencing Technology Program," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(5), pages 3035-3065, May.
    6. Zhu, Chen & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2022. "Identifying the technology convergence using patent text information: A graph convolutional networks (GCN)-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Jong Wook Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Patent data based search framework for IT R&D employees for convergence technology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5687-5705, July.
    8. Dejing Kong & Jianzhong Yang & Lingfeng Li, 2020. "Early identification of technological convergence in numerical control machine tool: a deep learning approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 1983-2009, December.
    9. Zhao, Shengchao & Zeng, Deming & Li, Jian & Feng, Ke & Wang, Yao, 2023. "Quantity or quality: The roles of technology and science convergence on firm innovation performance," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Kim, Juram & Kim, Seungho & Lee, Changyong, 2019. "Anticipating technological convergence: Link prediction using Wikipedia hyperlinks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 25-34.
    11. ZHU Chen & MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki, 2022. "Government R&D spending as a driving force of technology convergence," Discussion papers 22030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Liu, Zhenfeng & Feng, Jian & Uden, Lorna, 2023. "Technology opportunity analysis using hierarchical semantic networks and dual link prediction," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    13. Juite Wang & Tzu-Yen Hsu, 2023. "Early discovery of emerging multi-technology convergence for analyzing technology opportunities from patent data: the case of smart health," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(8), pages 4167-4196, August.
    14. Changyong Lee & Suckwon Hong & Juram Kim, 2021. "Anticipating multi-technology convergence: a machine learning approach using patent information," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 1867-1896, March.
    15. Lee, Hyunmin, 2023. "Converging technology to improve firm innovation competencies and business performance: Evidence from smart manufacturing technologies," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    16. Qian Xu & Yabin Yu & Xiao Yu, 2022. "Analysis of the Technological Convergence in Smart Textiles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    17. Park, Inchae & Yoon, Byungun, 2018. "Technological opportunity discovery for technological convergence based on the prediction of technology knowledge flow in a citation network," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 1199-1222.
    18. Sick, Nathalie & Preschitschek, Nina & Leker, Jens & Bröring, Stefanie, 2019. "A new framework to assess industry convergence in high technology environments," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 84, pages 48-58.
    19. Kim, Tae San & Sohn, So Young, 2020. "Machine-learning-based deep semantic analysis approach for forecasting new technology convergence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Jakob Hoffmann & Johannes Glückler, 2023. "Technological Cohesion and Convergence: A Main Path Analysis of the Bioeconomy, 1900–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:183:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522004553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.