IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v181y2022ics0040162522002839.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will economic sophistication contribute to Indonesia's emission target? A decomposed analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Chandrarin, Grahita
  • Sohag, Kazi
  • Cahyaningsih, Diyah Sukanti
  • Yuniawan, Dani

Abstract

Indonesia aspires to reduce 29%–41% of the nation's carbon emissions by 2030 and to reach net zero‑carbon emissions by 2060. The production paradigm of the Indonesian economy still relies entirely on dirty energy sources, including coal, oil and gas. As it is a natural resource-abundant developing country, we simulate the decomposed carbon emissions response to mounting economic growth and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the next 20 years, applying a dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag approach using time series data from 1966 to 2018. Our investigation demonstrates that economic growth and increased ECI help to reduce carbon emissions–oil use intensity and vice versa. Conversely, gas and coal emissions intensities respond positively to ECI, but negatively to economic growth. Our findings confirm that inadequate technological improvement in gas and coal use-oriented industries are detrimental to decoupling the economic growth–emissions relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Chandrarin, Grahita & Sohag, Kazi & Cahyaningsih, Diyah Sukanti & Yuniawan, Dani, 2022. "Will economic sophistication contribute to Indonesia's emission target? A decomposed analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:181:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522002839
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121758
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522002839
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121758?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elheddad, Mohamed & Benjasak, Chonlakan & Deljavan, Rana & Alharthi, Majed & Almabrok, Jaballa M., 2021. "The effect of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on the environment: The relationship between electronic finance and pollution in OECD countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Vivek Tulpule & Stephen Brown & Jaekyu Lim & Cain Polidano & Horn Pant & Brian S. Fisher, 1999. "The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Analysis Using GTEM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 257-285.
    3. Nuno Carlos Leitão & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente & José María Cantos-Cantos, 2021. "The Impact of Renewable Energy and Economic Complexity on Carbon Emissions in BRICS Countries under the EKC Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    5. Olimpia Neagu, 2019. "The Link between Economic Complexity and Carbon Emissions in the European Union Countries: A Model Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Zhang, Fan & Deng, Xiangzheng & Phillips, Fred & Fang, Chuanglin & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Impacts of industrial structure and technical progress on carbon emission intensity: Evidence from 281 cities in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Tateishi, Henrique Ryosuke & Bragagnolo, Cassiano & de Faria, Rosane Nunes, 2020. "Economic and environmental efficiencies of greenhouse gases’ emissions under institutional influence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Buhari Doğan & Oana M. Driha & Daniel Balsalobre Lorente & Umer Shahzad, 2021. "The mitigating effects of economic complexity and renewable energy on carbon emissions in developed countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 1-12, January.
    10. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2021. "How energy transition and power consumption are related in Asian economies with different income levels?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    11. Chen, Maozhi & Sinha, Avik & Hu, Kexiang & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2021. "Impact of technological innovation on energy efficiency in industry 4.0 era: Moderation of shadow economy in sustainable development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Hu, Ying & Yu, Yang & Mardani, Abbas, 2021. "Selection of carbon emissions control industries in China: An approach based on complex networks control perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    13. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Roubaud, David & Farhani, Sahbi, 2018. "How economic growth, renewable electricity and natural resources contribute to CO2 emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 356-367.
    14. Amiri, Hossein & Sayadi, Mohammad & Mamipour, Siab, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Outcomes; Fresh Evidences from a scenario-based NK-DSGE analysis for oil-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Hille, Erik & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2020. "UK's net-zero carbon emissions target: Investigating the potential role of economic growth, financial development, and R&D expenditures based on historical data (1870–2017)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Zhong, Zhangqi & Guo, Zhifang & Zhang, Jianwu, 2021. "Does the participation in global value chains promote interregional carbon emissions transferring via trade? Evidence from 39 major economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Sinha, Avik & Sengupta, Tuhin & Saha, Tanaya, 2020. "Technology policy and environmental quality at crossroads: Designing SDG policies for select Asia Pacific countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Li, Yiming & Wang, Zhaohua & He, Weijun & Zhao, Yuandong & Xu, Ming & Zhang, Bin, 2021. "Critical transmission sectors for CO2 emission mitigation in supply chains," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    19. Soren Jordan & Andrew Q. Philips, 2018. "Cointegration testing and dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag modelsJournal: Stata Journal," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(4), pages 902-923, December.
    20. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    21. Song, Yanwu & Zhang, Jinrui & Song, Yingkang & Fan, Xinran & Zhu, Yuqing & Zhang, Chen, 2020. "Can industry-university-research collaborative innovation efficiency reduce carbon emissions?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    22. Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Sector value addition, technology and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 868-877.
    23. Ali, Syed Ahtsham & Alharthi, Majed & Hussain, Hafezali Iqbal & Rasul, Farhat & Hanif, Imran & Haider, Jahanzaib & Ullah, Saad & ur Rahman, Saeed & Abbas, Qaiser, 2021. "A clean technological innovation and eco-efficiency enhancement: A multi-index assessment of sustainable economic and environmental management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    24. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Raghutla, Chandrashekar & Song, Malin & Zameer, Hashim & Jiao, Zhilun, 2020. "Public-private partnerships investment in energy as new determinant of CO2 emissions: The role of technological innovations in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    25. Ma, Xuejiao & Jiang, Ping & Jiang, Qichuan, 2020. "Research and application of association rule algorithm and an optimized grey model in carbon emissions forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    26. Zhao, Jun & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "How does financial risk affect global CO2 emissions? The role of technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    27. Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
    28. Dong, Kangyin & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zhao, Jun, 2022. "How do pollution fees affect environmental quality in China?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    29. Malzi, Mohamed Jaouad & Sohag, Kazi & Vasbieva, Dinara G. & Ettahir, Aziz, 2020. "Environmental policy effectiveness on residential natural gas use in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    30. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    31. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Yang, Chuxiao & Wu, Haitao, 2021. "Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    32. Fu, Rao & Jin, Gui & Chen, Jinyue & Ye, Yuyao, 2021. "The effects of poverty alleviation investment on carbon emissions in China based on the multiregional input–output model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    33. Begum, Rawshan Ara & Sohag, Kazi & Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed & Jaafar, Mokhtar, 2015. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 594-601.
    34. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Laura van Soest, Heleen & Schaeffer, Roberto & Reedman, Luke & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Macaluso, Nick & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & De Vita, Alessia & Sha, Fu & Qimin, Chai & Kej, 2021. "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    35. Du, Kerui & Li, Pengzhen & Yan, Zheming, 2019. "Do green technology innovations contribute to carbon dioxide emission reduction? Empirical evidence from patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 297-303.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahzad, Umer & Ferraz, Diogo & Nguyen, Huu-Huan & Cui, Lianbiao, 2022. "Investigating the spill overs and connectedness between financial globalization, high-tech industries and environmental footprints: Fresh evidence in context of China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Haddad, Akram Masoud & Salman, Asma & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "The role of Financial Development and Technological Innovation towards Sustainable Development in Pakistan: Fresh insights from consumption and territory-based emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Wang, Enci & Su, Bin & Zhong, Sheng & Guo, Qinxin, 2022. "China's Embodied SO2 Emissions and Aggregate Embodied SO2 Intensities in Interprovincial and International Trade," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Xin, Daleng & Ahmad, Manzoor & Lei, Hong & Khattak, Shoukat Iqbal, 2021. "Do innovation in environmental-related technologies asymmetrically affect carbon dioxide emissions in the United States?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. Francisco García-Lillo & Eduardo Sánchez-García & Bartolomé Marco-Lajara & Pedro Seva-Larrosa, 2023. "Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development: A Bibliometric Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    7. Bucher, Florian & Scheu, Lucas & Schröpf, Benedikt, 2022. "Economic complexity and environmental pollution: Evidence from the former socialist transition countries," Discussion Papers 124, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    8. Doğan, Buhari & Ghosh, Sudeshna & Hoang, Dung Phuong & Chu, Lan Khanh, 2022. "Are economic complexity and eco-innovation mutually exclusive to control energy demand and environmental quality in E7 and G7 countries?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Redulescu, Magdalena & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2021. "Does natural resources depletion and economic growth achieve the carbon neutrality target of the UK? A way forward towards sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Rawshan Ara Begum & Asif Raihan & Mohd Nizam Mohd Said, 2020. "Dynamic Impacts of Economic Growth and Forested Area on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-15, November.
    11. Suki, Norazah Mohd & Suki, Norbayah Mohd & Afshan, Sahar & Sharif, Arshian & Meo, Muhammad Saeed, 2022. "The paradigms of technological innovation and renewables as a panacea for sustainable development: A pathway of going green," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1431-1439.
    12. Florian Bucher & Lucas Scheu & Benedikt Schröpf, 2022. "Economic complexity and environmental pollution: Evidence from the former socialist transition countries," Working Papers 218, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    13. Xiang, Yitian & Cui, Haotian & Bi, Yunxiao, 2023. "The impact and channel effects of banking competition and government intervention on carbon emissions: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Li-Dong & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xuefeng & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Renewable energy and technological innovation: Which one is the winner in promoting net-zero emissions?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Chen, Huihui & Rehman, Mubeen Abdur & Luo, Jia & Ali, Madad, 2022. "Dynamic influence of natural resources, financial integration and eco-innovation on ecological sustainability in EKC framework: Fresh insights from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Leitão, João & Ferreira, Joaquim & Santibanez-González, Ernesto, 2022. "New insights into decoupling economic growth, technological progress and carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from 40 countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    17. Bernardo Caldarola & Dario Mazzilli & Lorenzo Napolitano & Aurelio Patelli & Angelica Sbardella, 2023. "Economic complexity and the sustainability transition: A review of data, methods, and literature," Papers 2308.07172, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    18. Zhao, Jun & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "How does financial risk affect global CO2 emissions? The role of technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Contente dos Santos Parente, Clara & Leitão, Nuno Carlos & Cantos-Cantos, José María, 2023. "The influence of economic complexity processes and renewable energy on CO2 emissions of BRICS. What about industry 4.0?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Ostadzad, Ali Hossein, 2022. "Innovation and carbon emissions: Fixed-effects panel threshold model estimation for renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 602-617.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:181:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522002839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.