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Climate change impact on precipitation extremes over Indian cities: Non-stationary analysis

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  • Goyal, Manish Kumar
  • Gupta, Anil Kumar
  • Jha, Srinidhi
  • Rakkasagi, Shivukumar
  • Jain, Vijay

Abstract

The phenomena of climate change and increase in warming conditions across the globe causes changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The present study analyzed extreme precipitation weather events across four Indian cities in different climatic conditions. The study uses IMD precipitation datasets from 1900 to 2004 to analyze different atmospheric influencing parameters like ENSO, AMO, and IOD on future extreme precipitation conditions. The Bayesian analysis is carried out for nonstationary analysis of extreme indices like Rx1 Day, SDII, R10, and CWD with a 10, 20, 50, and 100 years return period. Significant outcomes of the comparative study of the stationary and nonstationary analysis showed an intensification in extreme precipitation across Indian cities for all return periods using the CWD indicator. The remaining three indicators of the nonstationary study suggested intensifying extreme rainfall across all Indian cities except Guwahati.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Manish Kumar & Gupta, Anil Kumar & Jha, Srinidhi & Rakkasagi, Shivukumar & Jain, Vijay, 2022. "Climate change impact on precipitation extremes over Indian cities: Non-stationary analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:180:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522001883
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121685
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