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Conditional market timing in the mutual fund industry

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  • Tchamyou, Vanessa S.
  • Asongu, Simplice A.

Abstract

This study complements the scarce literature on conditional market timing in the mutual fund industry by assessing determinants of market timing throughout the distribution of market exposure. It builds on the intuition that the degree of responsiveness by fund managers to investigated factors (aggregate liquidity, information asymmetry, volatility and market excess return) is contingent on their levels of market exposure. To this end, we use a panel of 1467 active open-end mutual funds for the period 2004–2013. Fund-specific time-dynamic beta is employed and we avail room for more policy implications by disaggregating the dataset into market fundamentals of: equity, fixed income, allocation and tax preferred. The empirical evidence is based on Quantile regressions. The following findings are established. First, there is consistent positive threshold evidence of volatility and market return in market timing, with the slim exception of allocation funds for which the pattern of volatility is either U- or S-shaped. Second, the effect of volatility and market return are consistently positive and negative respectively in the bottom and top quintiles of market exposure, but not for allocation funds. Third, the effects of information asymmetry and aggregate liquidity are positive and negative, contingent on specifications, level of market exposure and market fundamentals. The findings broadly suggest that blanket responses of market exposures to investigated factors are unlikely to represent feasible strategies for fund managers unless they are contingent on initial levels of market exposure and tailored differently across ‘highly exposed’-fund managers and ‘lowly exposed’-fund managers. Implications for investors and fund managers are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2017. "Conditional market timing in the mutual fund industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1355-1366.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1355-1366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.072
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    Cited by:

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    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Information asymmetry, financialization, and financial access," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 297-315, December.
    11. Venessa S. Tchamyou & Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2018. "Effects of asymmetric information on market timing in the mutual fund industry," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(5), pages 542-557, October.
    12. ASONGU, Simplice & ODHIAMBO, Nicholas, 2018. "Drivers Of Growth In Fast Emerging Economies: A Dynamic Instrumental Quantile Approach To Real Output And Its Rates Of Growth In Brics And Mint Countries, 2001-2011," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 5-22.
    13. Ni, Zhongxin & Wang, Linyu & Li, Weishu, 2021. "Do fund managers time implied tail risk? — Evidence from Chinese mutual funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Wattanatorn, Woraphon & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth & Chunhachinda, Pornchai & Nathaphan, Sarayut, 2020. "Mutual fund liquidity timing ability in the higher moment framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Simplice A. Asongu & Valentine B. Soumtang & Ofeh M. Edoh, 2021. "Financial determinants of informal financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/077, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    16. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Information Sharing and Banking Efficiency in Africa: A Disaggregated Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/010, African Governance and Development Institute..
    17. Soumaya Ben Khelife & Christian Urom & Khaled Guesmi & Ramzi Benkraiem, 2022. "American hedge funds industry, market timing and COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 390-399, September.
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    20. Asongu, Simplice & Vo, Xuan, 2020. "The Effect of Finance on Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Avoidable CO2 emissions Thresholds," MPRA Paper 103233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Simplice A. Asongu & Valentine B. Soumtang & Ofeh M. Edoh, 2021. "Financial institutions, poverty and severity of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/081, African Governance and Development Institute..
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual funds; Market timing; Trade; Thresholds; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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