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Effects of road tolls for intercity buses on travel activities and the choice of means of transport in German long-distance passenger transport

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  • Burgdorf, Christian
  • Eisenkopf, Alexander

Abstract

In our study, we used a system dynamics model to analyze how distance-related road tolls for intercity bus services (Fernlinienbusverkehr) would affect the choice of means of transport and the travel activities of long-distance passenger transport users in Germany. In particular, we have analyzed how the modal split will change with certain toll rates, whether rail transport can benefit from the increased burden on its intermodal competitor, or whether the car is the biggest beneficiary instead. In addition, we also examined other relevant aspects, such as the revenue development in the national intercity bus market. Our simulations show that the introduction of distance-related road tolls in intercity bus transport (if they are completely shifted to customers in the form of surcharges) will result in significant changes: Thus, at a toll rate of 0.6 ct/passenger kilometer the modal share of intercity buses (by passenger kilometers) in the German long-distance passenger transport sector will drop by about 12 percent to 2.44 percent in the year 2025. At 0.4 ct/passenger kilometer, the share drops by almost three percent. The railway sector is the main beneficiary, but the car can also gain shares.

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  • Burgdorf, Christian & Eisenkopf, Alexander, 2018. "Effects of road tolls for intercity buses on travel activities and the choice of means of transport in German long-distance passenger transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 92-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:92-105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2018.03.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blayac, Thierry & Bougette, Patrice, 2017. "Should I go by bus? The liberalization of the long-distance bus industry in France," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 50-62.
    2. Knorr, Andreas & Lueg-Arndt, Andreas, 2016. "Intercity bus deregulation in Germany – Intramodal and intermodal effects after two years," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 323-329.
    3. Aarhaug, Jørgen & Fearnley, Nils, 2016. "Deregulation of the Norwegian long distance express coach market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-6.
    4. Bataille, Marc & Steinmetz, Alexander, 2013. "Intermodal competition on some routes in transportation networks: The case of inter urban buses and railways," DICE Discussion Papers 84, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    5. White, Peter & Robbins, Derek, 2012. "Long-term development of express coach services in Britain," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 30-38.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brand, Christina & Sieg, Gernot, 2020. "The impact of delays on the welfare effects of on-track competition: The case of transfer passengers with operator-tied tickets," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    3. Avenali, Alessandro & Gregori, Martina & Reverberi, Pierfrancesco, 2023. "Intercity bus and rail services: Competition and welfare effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intercity bus services; Road tolls; Choice of means of transport; System dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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