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Intention to adopt battery electric vehicles among the early-to-late majority: Policy and behavioral insights from post-subsidy China

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Feiyu
  • Ding, Xinhao
  • Zou, Jieru
  • Gao, Liangpeng
  • Sun, Qian

Abstract

As the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market matures and fiscal subsidies are phased out, consumer purchase intentions and potential user groups evolve. To further increase BEV penetration in the post-subsidy era, it is crucial to understand cognitive differences and influencing factors across adopter segments. However, limited research has addressed shifting purchasing intentions among adopters at different stages. Guided by innovation diffusion theory, this study fills this gap by identifying current and potential users as early adopters and the early-to-late majority. For the latter group, an extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model is proposed, incorporating BEV-specific factors such as environmental morals, belief in electrification, anticipated grid stability, pleasure-driven incentives, and technological proficiency. Based on survey data from 600 potential car buyers in Beijing, China, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is applied to estimate determinants. Results reveal that the early-to-late majority are significantly influenced by social influence, effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, and technological proficiency, whereas performance expectations and environmental concern are no longer significant. This shift reflects a growing emphasis on social value, cost-effectiveness, and ease of use. The findings underscore the need for targeted policy strategies to support BEV adoption in the post-subsidy era.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Feiyu & Ding, Xinhao & Zou, Jieru & Gao, Liangpeng & Sun, Qian, 2025. "Intention to adopt battery electric vehicles among the early-to-late majority: Policy and behavioral insights from post-subsidy China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:114:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925001325
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101649
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