IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v110y2025ics0739885925000046.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of autonomous vehicles on long-distance travel mode and destination choices in Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Paithankar, Priyanka
  • Vellimana, Maithreyi
  • Kockelman, Kara M.

Abstract

Privately owned and shared autonomous passenger vehicles (AVs and SAVs) and autonomous heavy-duty trucks (ATrucks) are expected to one day be widely available across the US and other nations. This study extends Texas’ Statewide Analysis Model (SAM) to compare scenarios with and without AVs, SAVs, and ATrucks, while restricting empty AV and ATruck travel—only SAVs are allowed to operate without passengers. Results suggest that, on average, individuals are likely to choose more remote destinations, as seen by an 18% rise in (average ) long-distance (over 50 miles, one-way) business trips (from 121 to 142 miles) and 13% for non-business trips (from 135 to 151 miles). AVs and SAVs accounted for 14% of one-person (single-occupant) long-distance trips across Texas, contributing to a 17 percentage-point reduction in long-distance trips made by human-driven vehicles. For (one-way) person-trips between 50 and 400 miles, SAVs carrying 3+ passengers accounted for 14.4% of the total daily statewide (310 million) person-miles traveled (PMT), two-passenger SAVs made up 7.8%, and one-person AV trips represented 10.7%. In the freight sector, ATrucks were the preferred mode, handling 35% of freight ton-miles, surpassing rail at 24% and human-driven trucks (HTrucks) at 16% (vs 52% and 33% via HTrucks and rail, respectively, before the inclusion of ATrucks). Results suggest serious congestion issues if travel demand management measures are not implemented, with statewide daily VMT rising 24% (from 1.10 to 1.36 billion vehicle-miles) and distance-weighted average network speeds falling 37% (from 25.8 to 18.9 miles per hour).

Suggested Citation

  • Paithankar, Priyanka & Vellimana, Maithreyi & Kockelman, Kara M., 2025. "Impact of autonomous vehicles on long-distance travel mode and destination choices in Texas," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:110:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925000046
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101521
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885925000046
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101521?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinping Guan & Shuang Zhang & Lisa A. D’Ambrosio & Kai Zhang & Joseph F. Coughlin, 2021. "Potential Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Sprawl: A Comparison of Chinese and US Car-Oriented Adults," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Wadud, Zia & MacKenzie, Don & Leiby, Paul, 2016. "Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Perrine, Kenneth A. & Kockelman, Kara M. & Huang, Yantao, 2020. "Anticipating long-distance travel shifts due to self-driving vehicles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Long T. Truong & Chris Gruyter & Graham Currie & Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1279-1292, November.
    5. Jun Liu & Kara M. Kockelman & Patrick M. Boesch & Francesco Ciari, 2017. "Tracking a system of shared autonomous vehicles across the Austin, Texas network using agent-based simulation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1261-1278, November.
    6. Huang, Yantao & Kockelman, Kara M. & Quarles, Neil, 2020. "How will self-driving vehicles affect U.S. megaregion traffic? The case of the Texas Triangle," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Fagnant, Daniel J. & Kockelman, Kara, 2015. "Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 167-181.
    8. Allan Ribeiro Pimenta & Md. Kamruzzaman & Graham Currie, 2023. "Long-term effects of autonomous vehicles on the built environment: a systematic scoping review towards conceptual frameworks," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 1083-1117, November.
    9. Fábio Duarte & Carlo Ratti, 2018. "The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Cities: A Review," Journal of Urban Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 3-18, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Kassens-Noor, Eva & Dake, Dana & Decaminada, Travis & Kotval-K, Zeenat & Qu, Teresa & Wilson, Mark & Pentland, Brian, 2020. "Sociomobility of the 21st century: Autonomous vehicles, planning, and the future city," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 329-335.
    3. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    4. Ahmed, Tanjeeb & Hyland, Michael & Sarma, Navjyoth J.S. & Mitra, Suman & Ghaffar, Arash, 2020. "Quantifying the employment accessibility benefits of shared automated vehicle mobility services: Consumer welfare approach using logsums," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 221-247.
    5. Dilshad Mohammed & Balázs Horváth, 2023. "Travel Demand Increment Due to the Use of Autonomous Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Becker, Henrik & Becker, Felix & Abe, Ryosuke & Bekhor, Shlomo & Belgiawan, Prawira F. & Compostella, Junia & Frazzoli, Emilio & Fulton, Lewis M. & Guggisberg Bicudo, Davi & Murthy Gurumurthy, Krishna, 2020. "Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 105-126.
    7. Kaddoura, Ihab & Bischoff, Joschka & Nagel, Kai, 2020. "Towards welfare optimal operation of innovative mobility concepts: External cost pricing in a world of shared autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 48-63.
    8. Pettigrew, Simone & Booth, Leon & Farrar, Victoria & Brown, Julie & Karl, Charles & Godic, Branislava & Vidanaarachchi, Rajith & Thompson, Jason, 2024. "Public support for proposed government policies to optimise the social benefits of autonomous vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 264-270.
    9. Chowdhury, Tufayel & Vaughan, James & Roorda, Matthew J., 2024. "Modeling impacts of freight automated vehicles in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Nahmias-Biran, Bat-hen & Oke, Jimi B. & Kumar, Nishant, 2021. "Who benefits from AVs? Equity implications of automated vehicles policies in full-scale prototype cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 92-107.
    11. Iacobucci, Riccardo & McLellan, Benjamin & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2018. "Modeling shared autonomous electric vehicles: Potential for transport and power grid integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 148-163.
    12. Jiang, Like & Chen, Haibo & Chen, Zhiyang, 2022. "City readiness for connected and autonomous vehicles: A multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria analysis through analytic hierarchy process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 13-24.
    13. Tengilimoglu, Oguz & Carsten, Oliver & Wadud, Zia, 2023. "Implications of automated vehicles for physical road environment: A comprehensive review," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh & Tayarani, Mohammad & Rowangould, Gregory, 2021. "A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Mohamad Shatanawi & Mohammed Hajouj & Belal Edries & Ferenc Mészáros, 2022. "The Interrelationship between Road Pricing Acceptability and Self-Driving Vehicle Adoption: Insights from Four Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-32, October.
    16. Peer, Stefanie & Müller, Johannes & Naqvi, Asjad & Straub, Markus, 2024. "Introducing shared, electric, autonomous vehicles (SAEVs) in sub-urban zones: Simulating the case of Vienna," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 232-243.
    17. Huang, Yantao & Kockelman, Kara M. & Quarles, Neil, 2020. "How will self-driving vehicles affect U.S. megaregion traffic? The case of the Texas Triangle," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Rubén Cordera & Soledad Nogués & Esther González-González & José Luis Moura, 2021. "Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Richter, Maximilian A. & Hagenmaier, Markus & Bandte, Oliver & Parida, Vinit & Wincent, Joakim, 2022. "Smart cities, urban mobility and autonomous vehicles: How different cities needs different sustainable investment strategies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Wang, Xianing & Lu, Linjun & Zhang, Zhan & Wang, Ying & Li, Haoming, 2025. "Introducing the vehicle-infrastructure cooperative control system by quantifying the benefits for the scenario of signalized intersections," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:110:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925000046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.