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Determinants of the long-term degradation rate of photovoltaic modules: A meta-analysis

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  • Straub-Mück, Michael
  • Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome
  • Rathgeber, Andreas W.

Abstract

A critical factor in determining the ecological and economic benefits of photovoltaic (PV) investments is the continuous decline in power output, known as degradation rate, and the consequent projected lifespan of the installed modules. To derive the aggregated effect of all degradation rates of outdoor exposed PV modules across the existing literature and explain the large differences among reported rates, we conducted a meta-analysis using various moderator variables, including climatic conditions, cell technology, methodological characteristics, and publication characteristics. The analysis of 80 primary studies, reporting 610 degradation rate observations, revealed a median degradation rate of 0.94 %/year and indicated that cell technology, mounting location, and methodological choices in the study design significantly influence reported degradation rates. We predict an average lifespan of 47 years for well-ventilated crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules in cold climates. These findings provide guidance for the future expansion of the photovoltaic fleet, aiming to enhance long-term performance.

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  • Straub-Mück, Michael & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Rathgeber, Andreas W., 2025. "Determinants of the long-term degradation rate of photovoltaic modules: A meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:216:y:2025:i:c:s1364032125003703
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115697
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    1. Carigiet, Fabian & Brabec, Christoph J. & Baumgartner, Franz P., 2021. "Long-term power degradation analysis of crystalline silicon PV modules using indoor and outdoor measurement techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
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    4. Ghosh, Amartya & Satya Prasad, V.K., 2024. "Evaluating the influence of environmental factors on household solar PV pro-environmental behavioral intentions: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 190(PA).
    5. Chandel, S.S. & Nagaraju Naik, M. & Sharma, Vikrant & Chandel, Rahul, 2015. "Degradation analysis of 28 year field exposed mono-c-Si photovoltaic modules of a direct coupled solar water pumping system in western Himalayan region of India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 193-202.
    6. Chaikumbung, Mayula, 2021. "Institutions and consumer preferences for renewable energy: A meta-regression analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
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