Dynamic small-scale green ammonia non-renewable and renewable exergy costs up to 2050: Short and long-term projections under IEA energy transition scenarios

Ammonia is currently indispensable for fertilizers and is projected to be a fundamental renewable energy vector. This study analyzes the non-renewable and renewable exergy costs associated with a small-scale green ammonia plant under different combinations of water electrolysis technologies (AWE, PEM, SOEC, and AEM) with electricity sources (hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and electricity grid). Our method accounts for both the exergy conversion efficiencies of primary energy sources and the required materials on the infrastructures of the renewables and electrolyzers. Our research projects current, short-term (2030) and long-term (2050) ammonia’s exergy cost based on different IEA’s energy transition scenarios. Our findings highlight the impact of non-renewable exergy consumption on the renewables and electrolyzers infrastructures on ammonia exergy costs. In 2025, these values range between 12.5 and 32.5 MWh/tNH3 whereas in 2050 they might range between 11.5 and 19.1 MWh/tNH3 for SOEC-hydro and PEM-AWE-electricity grid scenarios, respectively. A Grassmann diagram illustrates how non-renewable and renewable exergy costs are split throughout the natural resources of our plant. A discussion about the model’s main features, restrictions and future industrial symbiosis possibilities (Ar, H2, O2) is presented. Our innovative methodology emphasizes the origins of natural resources by conscientiously evaluating their non-renewable and renewable exergy costs.