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A novel conformable fractional logistic grey model and its application to natural gas and electricity consumption in China

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  • Li, Hui
  • Duan, Huiming
  • Song, Yuxin
  • Wang, Xingwu

Abstract

In this paper, a novel conformable fractional logistic grey model is established by using the logistic model, which can effectively represent the curvilinear relationship of energy data over time, has a certain historical reproduction ability and short- and medium-term prediction ability, and uses a series of excellent properties, such as simplicity and intuition, of conformable fractional-order accumulation. On the one hand, the new model improves the stability, reliability, and prediction accuracy of the grey model. On the other hand, based on the different modelling objects, the parameters of the model are dynamically adjusted, which can solve the problem of the two fixed parameters of the original logistic model affecting the accuracy of the model. Second, the least squares estimation technique is used to estimate the parameters of the new model, the integral transform is used to obtain the time response of the model, and the particle swarm algorithm is used to optimize the order of the fractional order. Finally, the new model is applied to China's natural gas and electricity consumption. The effectiveness of the new model is analysed from four different perspectives by establishing several different objects of natural gas and electricity consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Hui & Duan, Huiming & Song, Yuxin & Wang, Xingwu, 2025. "A novel conformable fractional logistic grey model and its application to natural gas and electricity consumption in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:243:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125002538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.122591
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