IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v257y2025ipas0951832025000109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Physical resilience assessment of road transportation systems during post-earthquake emergency phase: With a focus on restoration modeling based on dynamic Bayesian networks

Author

Listed:
  • Dou, Qiang
  • Lu, Da-Gang
  • Zhang, Bo-Yi

Abstract

The restoration models of road transportation components (bridges, tunnels, and road segments) form the basis for assessing the resilience of Road Transportation Systems (RTS). However, limited research has been conducted on exploring the restoration progress of these components, despite numerous studies focusing on pre-earthquake preparations such as optimal seismic retrofitting or suitable reinforcement. This paper proposes the application of a Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) model, in addition to the existing models including Uniform Distribution Model (UDM), Normal Distribution Model (NDM), and Markov Chain Process (MCP) model, to simulate the physical restoration process of road transportation components based on actual recovery data from the Wenchuan earthquake. Taking Aba prefecture, Sichuan province, China as an illustrative example, a time-varying metric is proposed to assess the physical resilience of the RTS using the established restoration model. The results demonstrate that the restoration model based on the DBN model aligns more closely with the actual restoration process. The results of resilience assessment further prove the rationality of the restoration model based on DBN model. The proposed restoration model can help decision makers to develop reasonable recovery strategies, which can improve the resilience of RTS.

Suggested Citation

  • Dou, Qiang & Lu, Da-Gang & Zhang, Bo-Yi, 2025. "Physical resilience assessment of road transportation systems during post-earthquake emergency phase: With a focus on restoration modeling based on dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:257:y:2025:i:pa:s0951832025000109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.110807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025000109
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2025.110807?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caetano, Henrique O. & N., Luiz Desuó & Fogliatto, Matheus S.S. & Maciel, Carlos D., 2024. "Resilience assessment of critical infrastructures using dynamic Bayesian networks and evidence propagation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Ouyang, Min & Wang, Zhenghua, 2015. "Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 74-82.
    3. KIM, Junyung & ZHAO, Xingang & SHAH, Asad Ullah Amin & KANG, Hyun Gook, 2021. "System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Sohn, Jungyul, 2006. "Evaluating the significance of highway network links under the flood damage: An accessibility approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 491-506, July.
    5. Jia, Chuanzhou & Zhang, Chi & Li, Yan-Fu & Li, Quan-Lin, 2023. "Joint pre- and post-disaster planning to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Wang, Ying & Zhao, Ou & Zhang, Limao, 2024. "Modeling urban rail transit system resilience under natural disasters: A two-layer network framework based on link flow," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Tan, Zhizhong & Wu, Bei & Che, Ada, 2023. "Resilience modeling for multi-state systems based on Markov processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    8. You, Qidong & Guo, Jianbin & Zeng, Shengkui & Che, Haiyang, 2024. "A dynamic Bayesian network based reliability assessment method for short-term multi-round situation awareness considering round dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Zhang, Zhenyu & Ji, Tingting & Wei, Hsi-Hsien, 2022. "Dynamic emergency inspection routing and restoration scheduling to enhance the post-earthquake resilience of a highway–bridge network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    10. Pan, Xing & Dang, Yuheng & Wang, Huixiong & Hong, Dongpao & Li, Yuehong & Deng, Hongxu, 2022. "Resilience model and recovery strategy of transportation network based on travel OD-grid analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Lichun Chen & Elise Miller-Hooks, 2012. "Resilience: An Indicator of Recovery Capability in Intermodal Freight Transport," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 109-123, February.
    12. Liu, Min & Qin, Jianjun & Lu, Da-Gang & Zhang, Wei-Heng & Zhu, Jiang-Sheng & Faber, Michael Havbro, 2022. "Towards resilience of offshore wind farms: A framework and application to asset integrity management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    13. Boakye, Jessica & Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Murphy, Colleen, 2022. "The role of transportation infrastructure on the impact of natural hazards on communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    14. E. E. Koks & J. Rozenberg & C. Zorn & M. Tariverdi & M. Vousdoukas & S. A. Fraser & J. W. Hall & S. Hallegatte, 2019. "A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Kammouh, Omar & Gardoni, Paolo & Cimellaro, Gian Paolo, 2020. "Probabilistic framework to evaluate the resilience of engineering systems using Bayesian and dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    17. Lee, Dooyoul & Kwon, Kybeom, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian network model for comprehensive risk analysis of fatigue-critical structural details," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    18. Kang, Won-Hee & Song, Junho & Gardoni, Paolo, 2008. "Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(11), pages 1584-1593.
    19. Wu, Yangyang & Hou, Guangyang & Chen, Suren, 2021. "Post-earthquake resilience assessment and long-term restoration prioritization of transportation network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    20. Xu, Min & Ouyang, Min & Hong, Liu & Mao, Zijun & Xu, Xiaolin, 2022. "Resilience-driven repair sequencing decision under uncertainty for critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    21. Lu, Qing-Long & Sun, Wenzhe & Dai, Jiannan & Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2024. "Traffic resilience quantification based on macroscopic fundamental diagrams and analysis using topological attributes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    22. Liu, Zengkai & Ma, Qiang & Cai, Baoping & Shi, Xuewei & Zheng, Chao & Liu, Yonghong, 2022. "Risk coupling analysis of subsea blowout accidents based on dynamic Bayesian network and NK model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sihui Dong & Ni Jia & Shiqun Li & Yazhuo Zou, 2025. "Time-Varying Reliability Assessment of Urban Traffic Network Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Du, Jianwei & Ren, Gang & Cui, Jialei & Cao, Qi & Wang, Jian & Wu, Chenyang & Zhang, Jiefei, 2025. "Monitoring of operational resilience on urban road network: A Shaoxing case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    2. Jia, Chuanzhou & Zhang, Chi & Li, Yan-Fu & Li, Quan-Lin, 2023. "Joint pre- and post-disaster planning to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Wei, Yian & Cheng, Yao & Liao, Haitao, 2024. "Optimal resilience-based restoration of a system subject to recurrent dependent hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Mohebbi, Shima & Aslani, Babak & Dsouza, Mark Herman, 2025. "A graph-empowered agent-based simulation: Impacts of coordination schemes on critical infrastructures resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    5. Li, Shunlong & Wang, Jie & He, Shaoyang, 2023. "Connectivity probability evaluation of a large-scale highway bridge network using network decomposition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    6. Shang, Qingxue & Guo, Xiaodong & Li, Jichao & Wang, Tao, 2022. "Post-earthquake health care service accessibility assessment framework and its application in a medium-sized city," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Pei, Shunshun & Zhai, Changhai & Hu, Jie, 2024. "Surrogate model-assisted seismic resilience assessment of the interdependent transportation and healthcare system considering a two-stage recovery strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    8. Zou, Qiling & Chen, Suren, 2019. "Enhancing resilience of interdependent traffic-electric power system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Wang, Jie & Zhang, Yangyi & Li, Shunlong & Xu, Wencheng & Jin, Yao, 2024. "Directed network-based connectivity probability evaluation for urban bridges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    11. Schneider, Moritz & Halekotte, Lukas & Comes, Tina & Lichte, Daniel & Fiedrich, Frank, 2025. "Emergency Response Inference Mapping (ERIMap): A Bayesian network-based method for dynamic observation processing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Jiaojiao Li & Jianjun Dong & Rui Ren & Zhilong Chen, 2024. "Modeling Resilience of Metro-Based Urban Underground Logistics System Based on Multi-Layer Interdependent Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-23, November.
    13. Ouyang, Min & Pan, ZheZhe & Hong, Liu & He, Yue, 2015. "Vulnerability analysis of complementary transportation systems with applications to railway and airline systems in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 248-257.
    14. Caetano, Henrique O. & N., Luiz Desuó & Fogliatto, Matheus S.S. & Maciel, Carlos D., 2024. "Resilience assessment of critical infrastructures using dynamic Bayesian networks and evidence propagation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    15. Wu, Yangyang & Chen, Suren, 2023. "Resilience modeling and pre-hazard mitigation planning of transportation network to support post-earthquake emergency medical response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    16. Sun, Hao & Yang, Ming & Wang, Haiqing, 2022. "A virtual experiment for measuring system resilience: A case of chemical process systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Wen, Qiang & Machida, Fumio, 2025. "Reliability modeling for three-version machine learning systems through Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    18. Trucco, Paolo & Petrenj, Boris, 2023. "Characterisation of resilience metrics in full-scale applications to interdependent infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    19. Yu, Juanya & Sharma, Neetesh & Gardoni, Paolo, 2024. "Functional connectivity analysis for modeling flow in infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    20. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Ma, Chaoqun & Zhang, Dongkai & Kou, Lei, 2023. "A data-driven integrated framework for predictive probabilistic risk analytics of overhead contact lines based on dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:257:y:2025:i:pa:s0951832025000109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.