IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i12p5402-d1676869.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-Varying Reliability Assessment of Urban Traffic Network Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Author

Listed:
  • Sihui Dong

    (School of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China)

  • Ni Jia

    (School of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China)

  • Shiqun Li

    (Zhan Tianyou College (CRRC College), Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China)

  • Yazhuo Zou

    (School of Art and Design, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China)

Abstract

With the advancement of urbanization and the proposal of sustainable development goals, the complexity and vulnerability of urban transportation systems have become increasingly prominent, and their reliability is directly related to the sustainable operation of urban transportation. The reliability of urban road networks, characterized by their dynamic nature, multi-scale characteristics, and anti-interference capabilities, directly restricts the functional guarantee of urban traffic and the efficiency of emergency response. To address the limitations of existing road network connectivity reliability assessment methods in representing time dynamics and modeling failure correlation, this study proposes a road network reliability assessment method based on a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) by constructing a probabilistic reasoning model that integrates cascading failure characteristics. First, the connectivity reliability of the road network under random and targeted attack strategies was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation, revealing the impact of different attack strategies on network reliability. Subsequently, the congestion delay index is used as the standard of road section failure, considering the failure distribution and mutual dependence of road sections over time, a cascade failure mechanism is introduced, and a time-varying reliability assessment model based on a DBN is constructed. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through a case study of a partial road network in Dalian. The results show that ignoring cascading effects can significantly overestimate the reliability of the road network, especially during peak traffic hours, where such deviations may mask the real paralysis risks of the network. In contrast, the method proposed in this study fully considers time dynamics and failure correlation and can better capture the reliability of the road network under various dynamic conditions, providing a scientific basis for the sustainable planning and emergency management of urban traffic systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Sihui Dong & Ni Jia & Shiqun Li & Yazhuo Zou, 2025. "Time-Varying Reliability Assessment of Urban Traffic Network Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5402-:d:1676869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/12/5402/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/12/5402/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Siwei & Li, Zhao & Xiang, Jianwen, 2025. "Reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees with Priority-AND gates using conditional binary decision diagrams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    2. Monfared, M.A.S. & Rezazadeh, Masoumeh & Alipour, Zohreh, 2022. "Road networks reliability estimations and optimizations: A Bi-directional bottom-up, top-down approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    3. Teppei Kato & Kenetsu Uchida & William H. K. Lam & Agachai Sumalee, 2021. "Estimation of the value of travel time and of travel time reliability for heterogeneous drivers in a road network," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1639-1670, August.
    4. Dou, Qiang & Lu, Da-Gang & Zhang, Bo-Yi, 2025. "Physical resilience assessment of road transportation systems during post-earthquake emergency phase: With a focus on restoration modeling based on dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    5. Chunting Liu & Guozhu Jia, 2019. "Industrial Big Data and Computational Sustainability: Multi-Method Comparison Driven by High-Dimensional Data for Improving Reliability and Sustainability of Complex Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Du, Jianwei & Cui, Jialei & Ren, Gang & Thompson, Russell G. & Zhang, Lele, 2025. "Cascading failures and resilience evolution in urban road traffic networks with bounded rational route choice," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 664(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jie & Zhang, Yangyi & Li, Shunlong & Xu, Wencheng & Jin, Yao, 2024. "Directed network-based connectivity probability evaluation for urban bridges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    3. Cheng, Qixiu & Liu, Zhiyuan & Lu, Jiawei & List, George & Liu, Pan & Zhou, Xuesong Simon, 2024. "Using frequency domain analysis to elucidate travel time reliability along congested freeway corridors," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Zang, Zhaoqi & Batley, Richard & Xu, Xiangdong & Wang, David Z.W., 2024. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Deng, Ye & Wang, Zhigang & Xiao, Yu & Shen, Xiaoda & Kurths, Jürgen & Wu, Jun, 2025. "Spatial network disintegration based on spatial coverage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Shirgir, Sina & Shamsaddinlou, Amir & Zare, Reza Najafi & Zehtabiyan, Sorour & Bonab, Masoud Hajialilue, 2023. "An efficient double-loop reliability-based optimization with metaheuristic algorithms to design soil nail walls under uncertain condition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Li, Shunlong & Wang, Jie & He, Shaoyang, 2023. "Connectivity probability evaluation of a large-scale highway bridge network using network decomposition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Wen, Huiying & Ye, Yichen & Zhang, Lin, 2024. "Optimizing road networks in underdeveloped regions for improving comprehensive efficiency integrated by accessibility, vulnerability and socioeconomic interaction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Jiayu Hang & Tianpei Tang & Jiawen Wang, 2025. "Dynamic Estimation of Travel Time Reliability for Road Network Using Trajectory Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Li, Zhengming & Smirnova, M.N. & Zhang, Yongliang & Smirnov, N.N. & Zhu, Zuojin, 2022. "Tunnel speed limit effects on traffic flow explored with a three lane model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 185-197.
    11. Baiyun Qian & Jinjun Huang & Xiaoxun Zhu & Ruijun Wang & Xiang Lin & Ning Gao & Wei Li & Lijiang Dong & Wei Liu, 2022. "Research on the Fault Diagnosis Method of a Synchronous Condenser Based on the Multi-Scale Zooming Learning Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    12. Azhdari, Armaghan & Ardakan, Mostafa Abouei & Najafi, Mojtaba, 2023. "An approach for reliability optimization of a multi-state centralized network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    13. Xiaomin Dai & Menghan Liu & Qiang Lin, 2024. "Research on Optimization Strategies of Regional Cross-Border Transportation Networks—Implications for the Construction of Cross-Border Transport Corridors in Xinjiang," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-25, June.
    14. Xu, Xiaohan & Huang, Ailing & Shalaby, Amer & Feng, Qian & Chen, Mingyang & Qi, Geqi, 2024. "Exploring cascading failure processes of interdependent multi-modal public transit networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 638(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5402-:d:1676869. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.