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Empirical study on human error probability of procedure-extraneous behaviors

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  • Kim, Yochan
  • Choi, Sun Yeong
  • Park, Jinkyun
  • Kim, Jaewhan

Abstract

To realistically quantify human reliability in socio-technical systems, it is useful to obtain statistical evidence from empirical data. A procedure-extraneous error, which is a type of commission error, can occur when an operator attempts to operate a system or component that is not guided in the relevant procedure. Because these behaviors are rarely found in system environments in which the procedures are strictly followed, they have not been sufficiently studied from a quantitative point of view. This study aims to estimate the occurrence probability of procedure-extraneous behaviors based on data from a full-scope simulator of a nuclear power plant. For this analysis, 107 simulation records of the APR1400 plant and human errors identified by experts in various fields were analyzed by Poisson regression. Using the resulting coefficient estimates from the regression model, the expected recovery probabilities, and the performance time required for human events, the occurrence probability of procedure-extraneous behavior was predicted. Depending on the situation and recoverability, various values of human error probability were derived between 1 and 10−6. Limitations from data scarcity and the implications of the results are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Jaewhan, 2022. "Empirical study on human error probability of procedure-extraneous behaviors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:227:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003519
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108727
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N. & Nusbaumer, O. & Dres, D., 2013. "A pilot study for errors of commission for a boiling water reactor using the CESA method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 86-98.
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    6. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    7. Reer, Bernhard, 2008. "Review of advances in human reliability analysis of errors of commission—Part 2: EOC quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(8), pages 1105-1122.
    8. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Presley, Mary, 2021. "Selecting significant contextual factors and estimating their effects on operator reliability in computer-based control rooms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Paglioni, Vincent P. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Dependency definitions for quantitative human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
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    11. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
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    1. Podofillini, Luca & Reer, Bernhard & Dang, Vinh N., 2023. "A traceable process to develop Bayesian networks from scarce data and expert judgment: A human reliability analysis application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    2. Kim, Yochan & Kim, Jaewhan & Park, Jinkyun, 2023. "A data-informed dependency assessment of human reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).

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