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Bayesian hierarchical model-based prognostics for lithium-ion batteries

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  • Mishra, Madhav
  • Martinsson, Jesper
  • Rantatalo, Matti
  • Goebel, Kai

Abstract

To optimise operation and maintenance, knowledge of the ability to perform the required functions is vital. The ability is governed by the usage of the system (operational issues) and availability aspects like reliability of different components. This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM)-based prognostics approach applied to Li-ion batteries, where the goal is to analyse and predict the discharge behaviour of such batteries with variable load profiles and variable amounts of available discharge data. The BHM approach enables inferences for both individual batteries and groups of batteries. Estimates of the hierarchical model parameters and the individual battery parameters are presented, and dependencies on load cycles are inferred. A BHM approach where the operational and reliability aspects end of life (EoD) and end of life (EoL) is studied where its shown that predictions of EoD can be made accurately with a variable amount of battery data. Without access to measurements, e.g. predicting a new battery, the predictions are based only on the prior distributions describing the similarity within the group of batteries and their dependency on the load cycle. A discharge cycle dependency can also be identified in the result giving the opportunity to predict the battery reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishra, Madhav & Martinsson, Jesper & Rantatalo, Matti & Goebel, Kai, 2018. "Bayesian hierarchical model-based prognostics for lithium-ion batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 25-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:172:y:2018:i:c:p:25-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.11.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Caiping & Wang, Yubin & Gao, Yang & Wang, Fang & Mu, Biqiang & Zhang, Weige, 2019. "Accelerated fading recognition for lithium-ion batteries with Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese cathode using quantile regression method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
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    4. Zhang, Jiusi & Jiang, Yuchen & Li, Xiang & Huo, Mingyi & Luo, Hao & Yin, Shen, 2022. "An adaptive remaining useful life prediction approach for single battery with unlabeled small sample data and parameter uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Nagulapati, Vijay Mohan & Lee, Hyunjun & Jung, DaWoon & Brigljevic, Boris & Choi, Yunseok & Lim, Hankwon, 2021. "Capacity estimation of batteries: Influence of training dataset size and diversity on data driven prognostic models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Xie, Lin & Ustolin, Federico & Lundteigen, Mary Ann & Li, Tian & Liu, Yiliu, 2022. "Performance analysis of safety barriers against cascading failures in a battery pack," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Bai, Guangxing & Su, Yunsheng & Rahman, Maliha Maisha & Wang, Zequn, 2023. "Prognostics of Lithium-Ion batteries using knowledge-constrained machine learning and Kalman filtering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Liu, Xinyang & Zheng, Zhuoyuan & Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & Zhou, Zhi & Wang, Pingfeng, 2021. "Battery asset management with cycle life prognosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Jie Liu & Qiu Tang & Wei Qiu & Jun Ma & Junfeng Duan, 2021. "Probability-Based Failure Evaluation for Power Measuring Equipment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Son, Seho & Jeong, Siheon & Kwak, Eunji & Kim, Jun-hyeong & Oh, Ki-Yong, 2022. "Integrated framework for SOH estimation of lithium-ion batteries using multiphysics features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    11. Lorenzo, Charles & Bouquain, David & Hibon, Samuel & Hissel, Daniel, 2021. "Synthesis of degradation mechanisms and of their impacts on degradation rates on proton-exchange membrane fuel cells and lithium-ion nickel–manganese–cobalt batteries in hybrid transport applicati," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    12. Lai, Xin & Yao, Yi & Tang, Xiaopeng & Zheng, Yuejiu & Zhou, Yuanqiang & Sun, Yuedong & Gao, Furong, 2023. "Voltage profile reconstruction and state of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries under dynamic working conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    13. Downey, Austin & Lui, Yu-Hui & Hu, Chao & Laflamme, Simon & Hu, Shan, 2019. "Physics-based prognostics of lithium-ion battery using non-linear least squares with dynamic bounds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Xi, Zhimin & Zhao, Xiangxue, 2019. "An enhanced copula-based method for data-driven prognostics considering insufficient training units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 181-194.
    15. Moghaddass, Ramin & Sheng, Shuangwen, 2019. "An anomaly detection framework for dynamic systems using a Bayesian hierarchical framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 561-582.

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