IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v96y2011i3p403-409.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Particle filtering prognostic estimation of the remaining useful life of nonlinear components

Author

Listed:
  • Zio, Enrico
  • Peloni, Giovanni

Abstract

Bayesian estimation techniques are being applied with success in component fault diagnosis and prognosis. Within this framework, this paper proposes a methodology for the estimation of the remaining useful life of components based on particle filtering. The approach employs Monte Carlo simulation of a state dynamic model and a measurement model for estimating the posterior probability density function of the state of a degrading component at future times, in other words for predicting the time evolution of the growing fault or damage state. The approach avoids making the simplifying assumptions of linearity and Gaussian noise typical of Kalman filtering, and provides a robust framework for prognosis by accounting effectively for the uncertainties associated to the estimation. Novel tailored estimators are built for higher accuracy. The proposed approach is applied to a crack fault, with satisfactory results.

Suggested Citation

  • Zio, Enrico & Peloni, Giovanni, 2011. "Particle filtering prognostic estimation of the remaining useful life of nonlinear components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 403-409.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:3:p:403-409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.08.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832010002152
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2010.08.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myötyri, E. & Pulkkinen, U. & Simola, K., 2006. "Application of stochastic filtering for lifetime prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 200-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zio, E., 2009. "Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 125-141.
    2. Fang, Xiaolei & Zhou, Rensheng & Gebraeel, Nagi, 2015. "An adaptive functional regression-based prognostic model for applications with missing data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 266-274.
    3. Tamilselvan, Prasanna & Wang, Pingfeng, 2013. "Failure diagnosis using deep belief learning based health state classification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 124-135.
    4. Hai-Kun Wang & Yan-Feng Li & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Remaining useful life estimation under degradation and shock damage," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(3), pages 200-208, June.
    5. Ying Liao & Yisha Xiang & Min Wang, 2021. "Health assessment and prognostics based on higher‐order hidden semi‐Markov models," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(2), pages 259-276, March.
    6. Zio, Enrico & Compare, Michele, 2013. "Evaluating maintenance policies by quantitative modeling and analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 53-65.
    7. Xiaoyan Cao & Jizong Jiao & Xiuli Liu & Wanyang Zhu & Haoran Wang & Huiqing Hao & Jingtao Lu, 2022. "Establishment of an Ecological Security Pattern under Arid Conditions Based on Ecological Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Arid Area in Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Chiachío, Juan & Chiachío, Manuel & Sankararaman, Shankar & Saxena, Abhinav & Goebel, Kai, 2015. "Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 134-147.
    9. Chiachío, Manuel & Chiachío, Juan & Sankararaman, Shankar & Goebel, Kai & Andrews, John, 2017. "A new algorithm for prognostics using Subset Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 189-199.
    10. Hu, Chao & Youn, Byeng D. & Wang, Pingfeng & Taek Yoon, Joung, 2012. "Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 120-135.
    11. Baraldi, Piero & Mangili, Francesca & Zio, Enrico, 2013. "Investigation of uncertainty treatment capability of model-based and data-driven prognostic methods using simulated data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 94-108.
    12. Chiquet, Julien & Eid, Mohamed & Limnios, Nikolaos, 2008. "Modelling and estimating the reliability of stochastic dynamical systems with Markovian switching," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(12), pages 1801-1808.
    13. Cadini, F. & Zio, E. & Avram, D., 2009. "Model-based Monte Carlo state estimation for condition-based component replacement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 752-758.
    14. Li, Yuan & Li, Jingwei & Wang, Huanjie & Liu, Chengbao & Tan, Jie, 2024. "Knowledge enhanced ensemble method for remaining useful life prediction under variable working conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    15. Pedregal, Diego J. & Carmen Carnero, Ma., 2009. "Vibration analysis diagnostics by continuous-time models: A case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 244-253.
    16. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
    17. Khac Tuan Huynh & Anne Barros & Christophe Bérenguer, 2012. "Adaptive condition-based maintenance decision framework for deteriorating systems operating under variable environment and uncertain condition monitoring," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(6), pages 602-623, December.
    18. Thanh Trung Le & Florent Chatelain & Christophe Bérenguer, 2016. "Multi-branch hidden Markov models for remaining useful life estimation of systems under multiple deterioration modes," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(5), pages 473-484, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:3:p:403-409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.