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Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites

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  • Chiachío, Juan
  • Chiachío, Manuel
  • Sankararaman, Shankar
  • Saxena, Abhinav
  • Goebel, Kai

Abstract

This paper presents a reliability-based prediction methodology to obtain the remaining useful life of composite materials subjected to fatigue degradation. Degradation phenomena such as stiffness reduction and increase in matrix micro-cracks density are sequentially estimated through a Bayesian filtering framework that incorporates information from both multi-scale damage models and damage measurements, that are sequentially collected along the process. A set of damage states are further propagated forward in time by simulating the damage progression using the models in the absence of new damage measurements to estimate the time-dependent reliability of the composite material. As a key contribution, the estimation of the remaining useful life is obtained as a probability from the prediction of the time-dependent reliability, whose validity is formally proven using the axioms of Probability Logic. A case study is presented using multi-scale fatigue damage data from a cross-ply carbon-epoxy laminate.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiachío, Juan & Chiachío, Manuel & Sankararaman, Shankar & Saxena, Abhinav & Goebel, Kai, 2015. "Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 134-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:134-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.04.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baraldi, Piero & Mangili, Francesca & Zio, Enrico, 2013. "Investigation of uncertainty treatment capability of model-based and data-driven prognostic methods using simulated data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 94-108.
    2. Saltelli, Andrea & Ratto, Marco & Tarantola, Stefano & Campolongo, Francesca, 2006. "Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1109-1125.
    3. Zio, Enrico & Peloni, Giovanni, 2011. "Particle filtering prognostic estimation of the remaining useful life of nonlinear components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 403-409.
    4. Myötyri, E. & Pulkkinen, U. & Simola, K., 2006. "Application of stochastic filtering for lifetime prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 200-208.
    5. Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S., 1998. "Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 263-290.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Blancke, Olivier & Tahan, Antoine & Komljenovic, Dragan & Amyot, Normand & Lévesque, Mélanie & Hudon, Claude, 2018. "A holistic multi-failure mode prognosis approach for complex equipment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 136-151.
    2. Chiachío, Juan & Jalón, María L. & Chiachío, Manuel & Kolios, Athanasios, 2020. "A Markov chains prognostics framework for complex degradation processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Lyu, Dong & Si, Shubin, 2020. "Dynamic importance measure for the K-out-of-n: G system under repeated random load," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Chiachío, Juan & Chiachío, Manuel & Prescott, Darren & Andrews, John, 2019. "A knowledge-based prognostics framework for railway track geometry degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 127-141.
    5. Kim, Hyeonmin & Kim, Jung Taek & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2018. "Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 225-233.
    6. Chiachío, Manuel & Chiachío, Juan & Sankararaman, Shankar & Goebel, Kai & Andrews, John, 2017. "A new algorithm for prognostics using Subset Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 189-199.
    7. Xing, Jinduo & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "A framework for dynamic risk assessment with condition monitoring data and inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Santosh B. Rane & Prathamesh R. Potdar & Suraj Rane, 2019. "Accelerated life testing for reliability improvement: a case study on Moulded Case Circuit Breaker (MCCB) mechanism," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(6), pages 1668-1690, December.

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