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Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants

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  • Preischl, Wolfgang
  • Hellmich, Mario

Abstract

We report about a project aimed to collect human reliability data from the operational experience of German nuclear power plants. Its objective is the validation and extension of existing human reliability databases (in particular, the THERP database). A method utilizing the German licensee event report system to gather the data is described. For certain tasks with specific attributes this method allows to determine the number of times the task was performed in the past, as well as the number of errors that occurred. A statistical method to estimate the corresponding human error probability (HEP) based on these numbers is provided. We have applied this method to the reportable events stored in the database collecting the reportable events in German nuclear installations. In this way up to now 37 HEPs for a wide variety of tasks were obtained, together with information about relevant performance shaping factors. We discuss these HEP estimates and compare them to the THERP database if it provides a HEP for the task in question. In all except three cases we find an agreement within the uncertainty bounds. Moreover, we contribute 21 HEP estimates for which the THERP handbook provides no data, so they serve to extend the THERP database, among them a number of memory related errors. Therefore, this data may serve as an input for the discussion of second generation HRA methods.

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  • Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2013. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 150-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:109:y:2013:i:c:p:150-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.08.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reer, Bernhard, 2008. "Review of advances in human reliability analysis of errors of commission—Part 2: EOC quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(8), pages 1105-1122.
    2. De Ambroggi, Massimiliano & Trucco, Paolo, 2011. "Modelling and assessment of dependent performance shaping factors through Analytic Network Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 849-860.
    3. Reer, Bernhard, 2008. "Review of advances in human reliability analysis of errors of commission, Part 1: EOC identification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(8), pages 1091-1104.
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    1. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2016. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants, Part II," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 44-56.
    2. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Liao, Huafei & Groth, Katrina & Stevens-Adams, Susan, 2015. "Challenges in leveraging existing human performance data for quantifying the IDHEAS HRA method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 159-169.
    4. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Peng Liu & Zhizhong Li, 2014. "Human Error Data Collection and Comparison with Predictions by SPAR‐H," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(9), pages 1706-1719, September.
    6. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
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    8. Ayoub, Ali & Stankovski, Andrej & Kröger, Wolfgang & Sornette, Didier, 2021. "The ETH Zurich curated nuclear events database: Layout, event classification, and analysis of contributing factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2016. "Methods for building Conditional Probability Tables of Bayesian Belief Networks from limited judgment: An evaluation for Human Reliability Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 93-112.
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    12. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2018. "Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 12-22.
    13. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L. & Ulrich, Thomas A. & Lew, Roger & Lee, Sungheon & Park, Bumjun & Kim, Jonghyun, 2022. "A framework to collect human reliability analysis data for nuclear power plants using a simplified simulator and student operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    14. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.

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