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Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data

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  • Kim, Yochan
  • Park, Jinkyun
  • Jung, Wondea
  • Choi, Sun Yeong
  • Kim, Seunghwan

Abstract

For probabilistically assessing the risks of nuclear power plants, human reliability analyses (HRAs) have been conducted to systematically predict human error probabilities (HEPs) of significant tasks that might affect system safety. To improve quality in the HRA results, solid empirical evidence for quantitative relations between performance shaping factors (PSFs) and HEPs is required. For generating the empirical evidence, the HRA data including human reliability data and contextual data should be collected and the quantitative relations between PSFs and HEPs should be properly estimated. In this study, in order to validate the statistical estimation approach for the relation between PSFs and HEPs, the simulation records of operator training programs that were performed via full-scope simulators were collected and analyzed by the HuREX (Human Reliability data EXtraction) framework. The simulator data including more than 10,000 data points are then statistically analyzed by a logistic regression analysis method. From the statistical process, the significant variables affecting human reliability are deduced, and the PSF multipliers for each significant variable are estimated. The potentials and challenges of the statistical approach are discussed from the obtained results.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2018. "Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 12-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:173:y:2018:i:c:p:12-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.01.001
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    1. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2013. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 150-159.
    2. James Chang, Y. & Bley, Dennis & Criscione, Lawrence & Kirwan, Barry & Mosleh, Ali & Madary, Todd & Nowell, Rodney & Richards, Robert & Roth, Emilie M. & Sieben, Scott & Zoulis, Antonios, 2014. "The SACADA database for human reliability and human performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 117-133.
    3. Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2007. "OPERA—a human performance database under simulated emergencies of nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 503-519.
    4. Raffaele Iannone & Salvatore Miranda & Stefano Riemma & Valentina Di Pasquale, 2013. "An Overview of Human Reliability Analysis Techniques in Manufacturing Operations," Chapters, in: Massimiliano M. Schiraldi (ed.), Operations Management, IntechOpen.
    5. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.
    6. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Paglioni, Vincent P. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Dependency definitions for quantitative human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Li, Jue & Li, Heng & Wang, Fan & Cheng, Andy S.K. & Yang, Xincong & Wang, Hongwei, 2021. "Proactive analysis of construction equipment operators’ hazard perception error based on cognitive modeling and a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    5. Abreu, Danilo T.M.P. & Maturana, Marcos C. & Droguett, Enrique Lopez & Martins, Marcelo R., 2022. "Human reliability analysis of conventional maritime pilotage operations supported by a prospective model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol & Zhao, Yunfei, 2020. "Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simul," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    7. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Reuel & Moradi, Ramin, 2019. "A hybrid algorithm for developing third generation HRA methods using simulator data, causal models, and cognitive science," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Greco, Salvatore F. & Podofillini, Luca & Dang, Vinh N., 2021. "A Bayesian model to treat within-category and crew-to-crew variability in simulator data for Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun, 2019. "Incorporating prior knowledge with simulation data to estimate PSF multipliers using Bayesian logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 210-217.
    10. Wang, Wei & Di Maio, Francesco & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Considering the human operator cognitive process for the interpretation of diagnostic outcomes related to component failures and cyber security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    11. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Presley, Mary, 2021. "Selecting significant contextual factors and estimating their effects on operator reliability in computer-based control rooms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L. & Ulrich, Thomas A. & Lew, Roger & Lee, Sungheon & Park, Bumjun & Kim, Jonghyun, 2022. "A framework to collect human reliability analysis data for nuclear power plants using a simplified simulator and student operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

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