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A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls

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  • Kim, Yochan
  • Park, Jinkyun
  • Jung, Wondea
  • Jang, Inseok
  • Hyun Seong, Poong

Abstract

Despite recent efforts toward data collection for supporting human reliability analysis, there remains a lack of empirical basis in determining the effects of performance shaping factors (PSFs) on human error probabilities (HEPs). To enhance the empirical basis regarding the effects of the PSFs, a statistical methodology using a logistic regression and stepwise variable selection was proposed, and the effects of the PSF on HEPs related with the soft controls were estimated through the methodology. For this estimation, more than 600 human error opportunities related to soft controls in a computerized control room were obtained through laboratory experiments. From the eight PSF surrogates and combinations of these variables, the procedure quality, practice level, and the operation type were identified as significant factors for screen switch and mode conversion errors. The contributions of these significant factors to HEPs were also estimated in terms of a multiplicative form. The usefulness and limitation of the experimental data and the techniques employed are discussed herein, and we believe that the logistic regression and stepwise variable selection methods will provide a way to estimate the effects of PSFs on HEPs in an objective manner.

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  • Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:378-387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.06.004
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    2. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Jae-Yoon & Heo, Gyunyoung & Kim, Yochan & Kim, Jaewhan & Cho, Jaehyun, 2018. "Application of a process mining technique to identifying information navigation characteristics of human operators working in a digital main control room – feasibility study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 38-50.
    4. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    6. Erjavac, Anthony J. & Iammartino, Ronald & Fossaceca, John M., 2018. "Evaluation of preconditions affecting symptomatic human error in general aviation and air carrier aviation accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 156-163.
    7. Porthin, Markus & Liinasuo, Marja & Kling, Terhi, 2020. "Effects of digitalization of nuclear power plant control rooms on human reliability analysis – A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    8. Park, J. & Chang, Y.J. & Kim, Y. & Choi, S. & Kim, S. & Jung, W., 2017. "The use of the SACADA taxonomy to analyze simulation records: Insights and suggestions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 174-183.
    9. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin & Zhu, Yanzhi, 2020. "Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Liu, Peng & Lyu, Xi & Qiu, Yongping & He, Jiandong & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2017. "Identifying key performance shaping factors in digital main control rooms of nuclear power plants: A risk-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 264-275.
    11. Awwal Mohammed Arigi & Gayoung Park & Jonghyun Kim, 2021. "An Approach to Analyze Diagnosis Errors in Advanced Main Control Room Operations Using the Cause-Based Decision Tree Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    12. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin, 2020. "Performance shaping factors dependence assessment through moderating and mediating effect analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    13. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun, 2019. "Incorporating prior knowledge with simulation data to estimate PSF multipliers using Bayesian logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 210-217.
    14. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Presley, Mary, 2021. "Selecting significant contextual factors and estimating their effects on operator reliability in computer-based control rooms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Yuan, Chengwei & Wang, Taorui & Jiang, Jianjun, 2022. "A Bayesian belief network framework for nuclear power plant human reliability analysis accounting for dependencies among performance shaping factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2018. "Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 12-22.
    17. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L. & Ulrich, Thomas A. & Lew, Roger & Lee, Sungheon & Park, Bumjun & Kim, Jonghyun, 2022. "A framework to collect human reliability analysis data for nuclear power plants using a simplified simulator and student operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    18. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

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