IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v151y2016icp93-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Methods for building Conditional Probability Tables of Bayesian Belief Networks from limited judgment: An evaluation for Human Reliability Application

Author

Listed:
  • Mkrtchyan, L.
  • Podofillini, L.
  • Dang, V.N.

Abstract

The present paper evaluates five methods for building Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) from partial expert information: functional interpolation, the Elicitation BBN, the Cain calculator, Fenton et al. and Røed et al. methods. The evaluation considers application to a specific field of risk analysis, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). The five methods are particularly suited for HRA models calculating the human error probability as a function of influencing factor assessments. The performance of the methods is evaluated on two simple examples, designed to test aspects relevant for HRA (but not exclusively): the representation of strong factor influences and interactions, the representation of uncertainty on the BBN relationships, and the method requirements as the BBN size increases. The evaluation underscores modelling limitations related to the treatment of multi-factor interdependencies and of different degrees of uncertainty in the factor relationships. The functional interpolation method is the least susceptible to these limitations; however, its elicitation requirements grow exponentially with the model size. Besides expert judgment, HRA applications of BBNs include the use of empirical data, combination of data and judgment, information from existing HRA methods: the building of the CPTs in these applications is outside the scope of the evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2016. "Methods for building Conditional Probability Tables of Bayesian Belief Networks from limited judgment: An evaluation for Human Reliability Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 93-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:151:y:2016:i:c:p:93-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016000132
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2016.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2013. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 150-159.
    2. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Røed, Willy & Mosleh, Ali & Vinnem, Jan Erik & Aven, Terje, 2009. "On the use of the hybrid causal logic method in offshore risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 445-455.
    4. James Chang, Y. & Bley, Dennis & Criscione, Lawrence & Kirwan, Barry & Mosleh, Ali & Madary, Todd & Nowell, Rodney & Richards, Robert & Roth, Emilie M. & Sieben, Scott & Zoulis, Antonios, 2014. "The SACADA database for human reliability and human performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 117-133.
    5. Groth, Katrina & Wang, Chengdong & Mosleh, Ali, 2010. "Hybrid causal methodology and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment and safety monitoring of socio-technical systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1276-1285.
    6. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2016. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants, Part II," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 44-56.
    7. Francis, Royce A. & Guikema, Seth D. & Henneman, Lucas, 2014. "Bayesian Belief Networks for predicting drinking water distribution system pipe breaks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Liao, Huafei & Groth, Katrina & Stevens-Adams, Susan, 2015. "Challenges in leveraging existing human performance data for quantifying the IDHEAS HRA method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 159-169.
    9. Katrina M Groth & Ali Mosleh, 2012. "Deriving causal Bayesian networks from human reliability analysis data: A methodology and example model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(4), pages 361-379, August.
    10. Martins, Marcelo Ramos & Maturana, Marcos Coelho, 2013. "Application of Bayesian Belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 89-109.
    11. Groth, Katrina M. & Mosleh, Ali, 2012. "A data-informed PIF hierarchy for model-based Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 154-174.
    12. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    13. Groth, Katrina M. & Swiler, Laura P., 2013. "Bridging the gap between HRA research and HRA practice: A Bayesian network version of SPAR-H," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 33-42.
    14. Langseth, Helge & Portinale, Luigi, 2007. "Bayesian networks in reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 92-108.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ekanem, Nsimah & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua & Ramos, Marilia, 2024. "Phoenix–A model-based human reliability analysis methodology: Data sources and quantitative analysis procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    2. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    3. Abreu, Danilo T.M.P. & Maturana, Marcos C. & Droguett, Enrique Lopez & Martins, Marcelo R., 2022. "Human reliability analysis of conventional maritime pilotage operations supported by a prospective model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Fam, Mei Ling & He, Xuhong & Konovessis, Dimitrios & Ong, Lin Seng, 2020. "Using Dynamic Bayesian Belief Network for analysing well decommissioning failures and long-term monitoring of decommissioned wells," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Greco, Salvatore F. & Podofillini, Luca & Dang, Vinh N., 2021. "A Bayesian model to treat within-category and crew-to-crew variability in simulator data for Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Ji, Chenyi & Su, Xing & Qin, Zhongfu & Nawaz, Ahsan, 2022. "Probability Analysis of Construction Risk based on Noisy-or Gate Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Leonardo Sierra-Varela & Gonzalo Valdes-Vidal & Alejandra Calabi-Floody & Leonardo Lleuful-Cruz & Noe Villegas-Flores & Álvaro Filun-Santana, 2023. "Determination of the Social Contribution of Sustainable Asphalt Mixes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Lei, Yi, 2020. "A slim integrated with empirical study and network analysis for human error assessment in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Quintanar-Gago, David A. & Nelson, Pamela F. & Díaz-Sánchez, à ngeles & Boldrick, Michael S., 2021. "Assessment of steam turbine blade failure and damage mechanisms using a Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    11. Podofillini, Luca & Reer, Bernhard & Dang, Vinh N., 2023. "A traceable process to develop Bayesian networks from scarce data and expert judgment: A human reliability analysis application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Liu, Peng & Lyu, Xi & Qiu, Yongping & He, Jiandong & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2017. "Identifying key performance shaping factors in digital main control rooms of nuclear power plants: A risk-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 264-275.
    13. Pence, Justin & Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Zhu, Xuefeng & Mohaghegh, Zahra & Ertem, Mehmet & Ostroff, Cheri & Kee, Ernie, 2019. "Data-theoretic methodology and computational platform to quantify organizational factors in socio-technical risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 240-260.
    14. Wang, Wei & Di Maio, Francesco & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Considering the human operator cognitive process for the interpretation of diagnostic outcomes related to component failures and cyber security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Hegde, Jeevith & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Schjølberg, Ingrid & Thorkildsen, Brede, 2018. "A Bayesian approach to risk modeling of autonomous subsea intervention operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 142-159.
    16. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Ekanem, Nsimah & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua & Ramos, Marilia, 2024. "Phoenix–A model-based human reliability analysis methodology: Data sources and quantitative analysis procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    3. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A quantitative measure of fitness for duty and work processes for human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 595-601.
    4. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Reuel & Moradi, Ramin, 2019. "A hybrid algorithm for developing third generation HRA methods using simulator data, causal models, and cognitive science," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Park, Jinkyun, 2024. "A framework to determine the holistic multiplier of performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis – An explanatory study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    9. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud, 2020. "A data-based comparison of BN-HRA models in assessing human error probability: An offshore evacuation case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    10. Paglioni, Vincent P. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Dependency definitions for quantitative human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Pandya, Dhruv & Podofillini, Luca & Emert, Frank & Lomax, Antony J. & Dang, Vinh N. & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2020. "Quantification of a human reliability analysis method for radiotherapy applications based on expert judgment aggregation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    13. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    14. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L. & Ulrich, Thomas A. & Lew, Roger & Lee, Sungheon & Park, Bumjun & Kim, Jonghyun, 2022. "A framework to collect human reliability analysis data for nuclear power plants using a simplified simulator and student operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    15. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.
    16. Groth, Katrina M. & Swiler, Laura P., 2013. "Bridging the gap between HRA research and HRA practice: A Bayesian network version of SPAR-H," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 33-42.
    17. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Curtis L. & Swiler, Laura P., 2014. "A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 32-40.
    18. Zwirglmaier, Kilian & Straub, Daniel & Groth, Katrina M., 2017. "Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 117-129.
    19. Bevilacqua, Maurizio & Ciarapica, Filippo Emanuele, 2018. "Human factor risk management in the process industry: A case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 149-159.
    20. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:151:y:2016:i:c:p:93-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.