IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v106y2012icp28-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yan-Fu
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

The current and future developments of electric power systems are pushing the boundaries of reliability assessment to consider distribution networks with renewable generators. Given the stochastic features of these elements, most modeling approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation. The computational costs associated to the simulation approach force to treating mostly small-sized systems, i.e. with a limited number of lumped components of a given renewable technology (e.g. wind or solar, etc.) whose behavior is described by a binary state, working or failed. In this paper, we propose an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG). The approach allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system. Multiple states are used to describe the randomness in the generation units, due to the stochastic nature of the generation sources and of the mechanical degradation/failure behavior of the generation systems. The universal generating function (UGF) technique is used for the individual component multi-state modeling. A multiplication-type composition operator is introduced to combine the UGFs for the mechanical degradation and renewable generation source states into the UGF of the renewable generator power output. The overall multi-state DG system UGF is then constructed and classical reliability indices (e.g. loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS)) are computed from the DG system generation and load UGFs. An application of the model is shown on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yan-Fu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 28-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:106:y:2012:i:c:p:28-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.04.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832012000749
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2012.04.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ding, Yi & Wang, Peng & Lisnianski, Anatoly, 2006. "Optimal reserve management for restructured power generating systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(7), pages 792-799.
    2. Zio, E. & Marella, M. & Podofillini, L., 2007. "A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the availability assessment of multi-state systems with operational dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 871-882.
    3. Nielsen, Jannie Jessen & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2011. "On risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbine components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 218-229.
    4. Guille, Christophe & Gross, George, 2009. "A conceptual framework for the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4379-4390, November.
    5. Guo, Haitao & Watson, Simon & Tavner, Peter & Xiang, Jiangping, 2009. "Reliability analysis for wind turbines with incomplete failure data collected from after the date of initial installation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1057-1063.
    6. Gregory Levitin, 2005. "The Universal Generating Function in Reliability Analysis and Optimization," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84628-245-4, January.
    7. Youcef Ettoumi, F. & Mefti, A. & Adane, A. & Bouroubi, M.Y., 2002. "Statistical analysis of solar measurements in Algeria using beta distributions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-67.
    8. Li, Wei & Zuo, Ming J., 2008. "Reliability evaluation of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 160-167.
    9. Billinton, Roy & Bagen,, 2006. "Generating capacity adequacy evaluation of small stand-alone power systems containing solar energy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(4), pages 438-443.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yiming & Liu, Yu & Jiang, Tao, 2021. "Optimal maintenance strategy for multi-state systems with single maintenance capacity and arbitrarily distributed maintenance time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Xiao, Hui & Shi, Daimin & Ding, Yi & Peng, Rui, 2016. "Optimal loading and protection of multi-state systems considering performance sharing mechanism," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 88-95.
    3. Li, Shenghu, 2013. "Reliability models for DFIGs considering topology change under different control strategies and components data change under adverse operation environments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 144-150.
    4. Wang, Yong & Li, Lin & Huang, Shuhong & Chang, Qing, 2012. "Reliability and covariance estimation of weighted k-out-of-n multi-state systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 138-147.
    5. Jiang, Tao & Liu, Yu, 2017. "Parameter inference for non-repairable multi-state system reliability models by multi-level observation sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 3-15.
    6. Tazi, Nacef & Châtelet, Eric & Bouzidi, Youcef, 2018. "How combined performance and propagation of failure dependencies affect the reliability of a MSS," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 531-541.
    7. Masoud Asgarpour & John Dalsgaard Sørensen, 2018. "Bayesian Based Diagnostic Model for Condition Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Igba, Joel & Alemzadeh, Kazem & Durugbo, Christopher & Henningsen, Keld, 2015. "Performance assessment of wind turbine gearboxes using in-service data: Current approaches and future trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-159.
    9. Lisnianski, Anatoly & Ding, Yi, 2016. "Using inverse Lz-transform for obtaining compact stochastic model of complex power station for short-term risk evaluation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 19-27.
    10. Shafiee, Mahmood & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2019. "Maintenance optimization and inspection planning of wind energy assets: Models, methods and strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2017. "Optimal loading of series parallel systems with arbitrary element time-to-failure and time-to-repair distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 34-44.
    12. Akwasi F. Mensah & Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio, 2012. "A Closed-Form Technique for the Reliability and Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(6), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Li, Y.F. & Peng, R., 2014. "Availability modeling and optimization of dynamic multi-state series–parallel systems with random reconfiguration," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 47-57.
    14. Shao, Changzheng & Ding, Yi, 2020. "Two-interdependent-performance multi-state system: Definitions and reliability evaluation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    15. Liu, Yu & Liu, Qinzhen & Xie, Chaoyang & Wei, Fayuan, 2019. "Reliability assessment for multi-state systems with state transition dependency," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 276-288.
    16. Hui Xiao & Minhao Cao & Gang Kou & Xiaojun Yuan, 2021. "Optimal element allocation and sequencing of multi-state series systems with two levels of performance sharing," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(2), pages 282-292, April.
    17. Amirioun, Mohammad Hassan & Kazemi, Ahad, 2014. "A new model based on optimal scheduling of combined energy exchange modes for aggregation of electric vehicles in a residential complex," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 186-198.
    18. Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad & Xie, Min & Ng, Kien Ming & Yam, Richard C.M., 2014. "Dynamic availability assessment and optimal component design of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 57-62.
    19. Wu, Bei & Cui, Lirong & Fang, Chen, 2020. "Multi-state balanced systems with multiple failure criteria," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    20. Su, Peng & Wang, Guanjun & Duan, Fengjun, 2020. "Reliability evaluation of a k-out-of-n(G)-subsystem based multi-state system with common bus performance sharing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:106:y:2012:i:c:p:28-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.