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Modelling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics

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  • Snellman, Jan E.
  • Barrio, Rafael A.
  • Kaski, Kimmo K.
  • Käpylä, Maarit J.

Abstract

In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area cells. The model treats the populations of cells and authorities of districts as agents, such that the former can reduce their economic activity and the latter can recommend economic activity reduction both with the overall goal to slow down the epidemic spreading. The agents make decisions with the aim of attaining as high socio-economic standings as possible relative to other agents of the same type by evaluating their standings based on the local and regional infection rates, compliance to the authorities’ regulations, regional drops in economic activity, and efforts to mitigate the spread of epidemic. We find that the willingness of population to comply with authorities’ recommendations has the most drastic effect on the epidemic spreading: periodic waves spread almost unimpeded in non-compliant populations, while in compliant ones the spread is minimal with chaotic spreading pattern and significantly lower infection rates. Health and economic concerns of agents turn out to have lesser roles, the former increasing their efforts and the latter decreasing them.

Suggested Citation

  • Snellman, Jan E. & Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K. & Käpylä, Maarit J., 2022. "Modelling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:604:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122004629
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Silva, Petrônio C.L. & Batista, Paulo V.C. & Lima, Hélder S. & Alves, Marcos A. & Guimarães, Frederico G. & Silva, Rodrigo C.P., 2020. "COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Jan E. Snellman & Gerardo I~niguez & J'anos Kert'esz & R. A. Barrio & Kimmo K. Kaski, 2018. "Status maximization as a source of fairness in a networked dictator game," Papers 1806.05542, arXiv.org.
    3. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yohsuke Murase & Yasuyuki Todo, 2021. "Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K. & Haraldsson, Guđmundur G. & Aspelund, Thor & Govezensky, Tzipe, 2021. "A model for social spreading of Covid-19: Cases of Mexico, Finland and Iceland," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    5. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    6. Snellman, Jan E. & Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K., 2021. "Social structure formation in a network of agents playing a hybrid of ultimatum and dictator games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 561(C).
    7. Matthew Koehler & David M Slater & Garry Jacyna & James R Thompson, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 for Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 24(2), pages 1-9.
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