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Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation

Author

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  • Zhang, Nan
  • Huang, Hong
  • Su, Boni
  • Zhao, Jinlong

Abstract

Knowing the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation and having an efficient evacuation plan play a very important role in the serious disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and hurricane. In this paper, the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation in a densely populated area of Beijing was studied with consideration of different influencing factors. Firstly, the eight influencing factors including road width, node degree, safety betweenness, road resistor coefficient, building threat, pedestrian counterflow, illegal vehicle parking and traffic flow were considered to assess the road risk for pedestrian evacuation. Secondly, based on complex network theory, electric circuit theory and real situation of the roads, the comprehensive assessment function for road risk was developed quantitatively based on the eight influencing factors. Thirdly, we analyzed road risk for pedestrian evacuation considering different situations: current condition, regular condition, and optimal condition; the risk distribution maps were drawn to directly show the risk level. Through assessments, the roads with high risk for pedestrian evacuation were found, and an optimized evacuation plan was obtained and analyzed. This mathematical model can guide the emergency evacuation in real time. The process and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of evacuations which should considerably reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in the disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Nan & Huang, Hong & Su, Boni & Zhao, Jinlong, 2015. "Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 171-183.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:430:y:2015:i:c:p:171-183
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.082
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    Cited by:

    1. N. Zhang & X. Ni & H. Huang & J. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    2. Zhang, N. & Huang, H. & Su, Boni, 2016. "Comprehensive analysis of information dissemination in disasters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 846-857.
    3. N. Zhang & X. Y. Ni & H. Huang & J. L. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    4. Zhang, N. & Ni, X.Y. & Huang, H. & Duarte, M., 2017. "Risk-based personal emergency response plan under hazardous gas leakage: Optimal information dissemination and regional evacuation in metropolises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 237-250.

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