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Population evacuation analysis: considering dynamic population vulnerability distribution and disaster information dissemination

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  • Nan Zhang
  • Hong Huang
  • Boni Su
  • Hui Zhang

Abstract

Knowing the dynamic population vulnerability distribution and having an efficient information dissemination of disaster warnings play a very important role in the developing of a population evacuation strategy. In this paper, the evacuation of populations in a densely populated area of Beijing was studied with consideration of the spatio-temporal population vulnerability distribution and different methods of disaster information dissemination. Firstly, the population vulnerability distribution was obtained based on the population density, with consideration for dynamic population distribution, building heights, building types and population characteristics. Secondly, a disaster information dissemination model that utilizes sound trucks was developed, and an improved algorithm for finding the optimal route for the sound trucks was established. Thirdly, we ran 81 evacuation simulations that included different variables such as time periods, number of sound trucks, speeds of trucks and sound-spread radius. These were performed based on the dynamic population vulnerability distribution and the developed model. Through these simulations, the rates of population congestion in an evacuation area were understood, and an optimized evacuation plan was obtained and analyzed. The process and the results that were obtained are essential for improving the efficiency of evacuations, which should considerably reduce the possibility injury, deaths and other losses in a disaster. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Zhang & Hong Huang & Boni Su & Hui Zhang, 2013. "Population evacuation analysis: considering dynamic population vulnerability distribution and disaster information dissemination," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1629-1646, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:69:y:2013:i:3:p:1629-1646
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0767-y
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    Cited by:

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    2. N. Zhang & X. Ni & H. Huang & J. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    3. Wei Zhang & Jianzhong Zhou & Yi Liu & Xiao Chen & Chao Wang, 2016. "Emergency evacuation planning against dike-break flood: a GIS-based DSS for flood detention basin of Jingjiang in central China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1283-1301, March.
    4. Wei Zhang & Jianzhong Zhou & Yi Liu & Xiao Chen & Chao Wang, 2016. "Emergency evacuation planning against dike-break flood: a GIS-based DSS for flood detention basin of Jingjiang in central China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1283-1301, March.
    5. Zhang, N. & Huang, H. & Su, Boni, 2016. "Comprehensive analysis of information dissemination in disasters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 846-857.
    6. N. Zhang & X. Y. Ni & H. Huang & J. L. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    7. Blake Walker & Cameron Taylor-Noonan & Alan Tabbernor & T’Brenn McKinnon & Harsimran Bal & Dan Bradley & Nadine Schuurman & John Clague, 2014. "A multi-criteria evaluation model of earthquake vulnerability in Victoria, British Columbia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 1209-1222, November.
    8. Haihong Yuan & Xiaolu Gao & Wei Qi, 2019. "Fine-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Population Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters: Theoretical Models and Application to Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Zhang, N. & Ni, X.Y. & Huang, H. & Duarte, M., 2017. "Risk-based personal emergency response plan under hazardous gas leakage: Optimal information dissemination and regional evacuation in metropolises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 237-250.

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