Cross-correlations between agricultural commodity futures markets in the US and China
This paper examines the cross-correlation properties of agricultural futures markets between the US and China using a cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). The results show that the cross-correlations between the two geographically distant markets for four pairs of important agricultural commodities futures are significantly multifractal. By introducing the concept of a “crossover”, we find that the multifractality of cross-correlations between the two markets is not long lasting. The cross-correlations in the short term are more strongly multifractal, but they are weakly so in the long term. Moreover, cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent and those of large fluctuations are anti-persistent in the short term while cross-correlations of all kinds of fluctuations for soy bean and soy meal futures are persistent and for corn and wheat futures are anti-persistent in the long term. We also find that cross-correlation exponents are less than the averaged generalized Hurst exponent when q<0 and more than the averaged generalized Hurst exponent when q>0 in the short term, while in the long term they are almost the same.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 391 (2012)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Corazza & A.G. Malliaris & Carla Nardelli, 1997. "Searching for fractal structure in agricultural futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 433-473, 06.
- Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2010. "Long-range dependence in the volatility of commodity futures prices: Wavelet-based evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 79-90.
- Gu, Rongbao & Chen, Hongtao & Wang, Yudong, 2010. "Multifractal analysis on international crude oil markets based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2805-2815.
- He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are developed and emerging agricultural futures markets multifractal? A comparative perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3828-3836.
- Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2010. "Cross-correlations between Chinese A-share and B-share markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5468-5478.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Cisneros, Myriam & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Soriano, Angel, 2002. "Multifractal Hurst analysis of crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 651-670.
- Chen, Shu-Peng & He, Ling-Yun, 2010. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1434-1444.
- Lo, Andrew W, 1991.
"Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RSSTATISTIC: RATS procedure to compute R/S Statistic (classical or Lo's modified)," Statistical Software Components RTS00191, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 27(2), August.
- LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
- Arthur, W.B. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R., 1997. "Time Series Properties of an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9725, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Siqueira, Erinaldo Leite & Stošić, Tatijana & Bejan, Lucian & Stošić, Borko, 2010. "Correlations and cross-correlations in the Brazilian agrarian commodities and stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2739-2743.
- Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Jin, Xiu, 2009. "Measuring multifractality of stock price fluctuation using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(11), pages 2189-2197.
- Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Analysis of the efficiency and multifractality of gold markets based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 817-827.
- Norouzzadeh, P. & Rahmani, B., 2006. "A multifractal detrended fluctuation description of Iranian rial–US dollar exchange rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 328-336.
- Podobnik, Boris & Horvatic, Davor & Lam Ng, Alfonso & Eugene Stanley, H. & Ivanov, Plamen Ch., 2008. "Modeling long-range cross-correlations in two-component ARFIMA and FIARCH processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3954-3959.
- He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2011. "Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price–volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(2), pages 297-308.
- B. Podobnik & I. Grosse & D. Horvatić & S. Ilic & P. Ch. Ivanov & H. E. Stanley, 2009. "Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 243-250, September.
- Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2010. "Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 987-992, September.
- Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
- Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
- Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 123-137, August.
- Wei-Xing Zhou, 2008. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis for two nonstationary signals," Papers 0803.2773, arXiv.org.
- Zunino, L. & Tabak, B.M. & Figliola, A. & Pérez, D.G. & Garavaglia, M. & Rosso, O.A., 2008. "A multifractal approach for stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6558-6566. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:15:p:3930-3941. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.