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Dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets, and relevant multi-spread strategy

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  • Kim, Min Jae
  • Kim, Sehyun
  • Jo, Yong Hwan
  • Kim, Soo Yong

Abstract

Understanding the dependence structure between the commodity and stock markets is a crucial issue in constructing a portfolio. It can also help us to discover new opportunities to implement spread trading using multiple assets classified in the two different markets. This study analyzed the dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets using the random matrix theory technique and network analysis. Our results show that the stock and commodity markets must be handled as completely separated asset classes except for the oil and gold markets, so the performance enhancement of the mean-variance portfolio is significant as expected. In light of the fact that WTI 1 month futures and four oil-related stocks are strongly correlated, they were selected as basic ingredients to complement the multi-spread convergence trading strategy using a machine learning technique called the AdaBoost algorithm. The performance of this strategy for non-myopic investors, who can endure short-term loss, can be enhanced significantly on a risk measurement basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Sehyun & Jo, Yong Hwan & Kim, Soo Yong, 2011. "Dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets, and relevant multi-spread strategy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3842-3854.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:21:p:3842-3854
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.06.037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lim, Kyuseong & Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Sehyun & Kim, Soo Yong, 2014. "Statistical properties of the stock and credit market: RMT and network topology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 66-75.
    2. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:118-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    4. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine, 2016. "A time-varying copula approach for modelling dependency: New evidence from commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 168-189.
    5. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    6. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2016. "Linking the gas and oil markets with the stock market: Investigating the U.S. relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 5-16.

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