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The Interactive Minority Game: a Web-based investigation of human market interactions

Author

Listed:
  • Laureti, Paolo
  • Ruch, Peter
  • Wakeling, Joseph
  • Zhang, Yi-Cheng

Abstract

The unprecedented access offered by the World Wide Web brings with it the potential to gather huge amounts of data on human activities. Here we exploit this by using a toy model of financial markets, the Minority Game (MG), to investigate human speculative trading behaviour and information capacity. Hundreds of individuals have played a total of tens of thousands of game turns against computer-controlled agents in the Web-based Interactive Minority Game. The analytical understanding of the MG permits fine-tuning of the market situations encountered, allowing for investigation of human behaviour in a variety of controlled environments. In particular, our results indicate a transition in players’ decision-making, as the markets become more difficult, between deductive behaviour making use of short-term trends in the market, and highly repetitive behaviour that ignores entirely the market history, yet outperforms random decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Laureti, Paolo & Ruch, Peter & Wakeling, Joseph & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2004. "The Interactive Minority Game: a Web-based investigation of human market interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 331(3), pages 651-659.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:331:y:2004:i:3:p:651-659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2003.07.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Płatkowski, Tadeusz & Ramsza, Michał, 2003. "Playing minority game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 726-734.
    2. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2002. "Coordination and Self-Organization in Minority Games: Experimental Evidence," ROCK Working Papers 019, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 12 Jun 2008.
    3. W. Brian Arthur, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning, Bounded Rationality and the Bar Problem," Working Papers 94-03-014, Santa Fe Institute.
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 401-426, October.
    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-411, May.
    6. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2000. "Modeling market mechanism with minority game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-315.
    7. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Borghesi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2007. "Of songs and men: a model for multiple choice with herding," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 557-568, August.

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